Thunder Against the Spread | Thunder Favored Big Headed Into Memphis

Tip-Off: 5 PM CT

Location: FedEx Forum (Memphis, Tennessee)

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Total: 231.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Grizzlies
5-5 (50%)	All	3-7 (30%)
3-3 (50%) on the road	Location	3-4 (42%) at home
5-5 (50%) as favorite	Status	0-5 (0%) as underdog
3-3 (50%) as road favorite	Location Status	0-3 (0%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 6-4 (60%) against the over on the season.
• Memphis is 4-6 (40%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 3-3 (50%) against the over on the road.
• The Grizzlies are 3-4 (42%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	123.2	109.7	47.5	34.2	47.8	25.5	12.3	10.5	5.6	W1	9-1
MEM	115.1	119.1	44.3	33.3	43.0	27.2	14.7	8.0	4.1	W1	4-6

Injury Report

Thunder

• Luguentz Dort (strained right upper trap) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Aaron Wiggins (strained left adductor) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (right wrist surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Kenrich Williams (left knee surgical recovery) is OUT.

Grizzlies

• Santi Aldama (left shoulder soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Brandon Clarke (right knee surgery recovery) is OUT.
• Zach Edey (left ankle surgery recovery) is OUT.
• PJ Hall (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• GG Jackso (G League — on assignment) is AVAILABLE.
• Ty Jerome (strained right calf) is OUT.
• Scotty Pippen Jr. (left great toe surgery recovery) is OUT.
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (G League — two-way) is AVAILABLE.
• Javon Small (G League — two-way) is AVAILABLE.

Series History

OKC went 4-0 against the Grizzlies in the 2024-25 regular season (2-0 at home, 2-0 on the road) before sweeping them in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs (2-0 at home, 2-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)

The Grizzlies are lacking a lot of depth right now, an area where OKC excels, even when injured. The Thunder’s shooting has vastly improved since the rough start to the season, which has fueled the offense in a lot of ways, and Memphis is not a great defensive team right now. I don’t think OKC struggles to slow down the Grizzlies, either. I’m thinking this might be another fourth-quarter full of rest for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (231.5)

While I do think OKC covers the spread, I still think Memphis scores close to their average by the end of the game. If that happens, and the Thunder wins big, the point total will go over the expected number easily.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	8-2	4-6	3-7
Zack	9-1	5-5	6-4
Craig	9-1	4-6	2-8