Thunder Against the Spread | OKC is a Massive Favorite over Phoenix as Jalen Williams Makes Season Debut

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Total: 225.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Suns
10-9 (52%)	All	13-6 (68%)
5-4 (55%) at home	Location	4-4 (50%) on the road
10-9 (52%) as favorite	Status	5-5 (50%) as underdog
5-4 (55%) as home favorite	Location Status	2-4 (33%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 9-10 (47%) against the over on the season.
• Phoenix is 7-12 (36%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 4-5 (44%) against the over at home.
• The Suns are 4-4 (40%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
PHX	116.8	112.6	46.9	37.9	43.6	25.9	16.6	10.8	4.5	W1	8-2
OKC	122.1	105.6	48.7	35.8	45.2	26.2	12.9	10.7	5.5	W10	10-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (right ankle soreness) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Aaron Wiggins (strained left adductor) is OUT.

Suns

• Grayson Allen (right quadricep contusion) is OUT.
• Ryan Dunn (sprained right wrist) is OUT.
• Jalen Green (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Isaiah Livers (right hip soreness) is OUT.

Series History

OKC went 3-0 against Phoenix in the 2024-25 regular season (2-0 at home, 1-0 on the road), and the Thunder has won 6 consecutive meetings with the Suns (3-0 at home, 3-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-15.5)

Under normal circumstances, I would expect OKC to cover this spread, especially since Jalen Williams is finally set to make his season debut after sitting out due to his offseason wrist surgery and recovery. However, as the final cup game for West Group A, there is a lot on the line. Both OKC and Phoenix are 3-0 so far in group play, so the winner will move on to the knockout round, but the loser has a decent shot at making the wildcard, as long as they don’t lose by too much. Because of that, I’m expecting a game decided by single digits.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (225.5)

While I do expect the game to be close, I don’t see OKC taking a night off from playing defense. Similar to the Minnesota game, I believe this one will be decided by whoever makes plays on defense, rather than by knocking down big shots. The only way I see this one going over is if OKC turns it into a blowout, which is definitely possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	17-2	11-8	4-15
Zack	18-1	9-10	9-10
Craig	18-1	9-10	6-13