Thunder Against the Spread | Don’t Expect Another Close Game as OKC Heads Into Portland Heavily Favored

Tip-Off: 5 PM CT

Location: Moda Center (Portland, Oregon)

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Total: 233.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Blazers
10-10 (50%)	All	9-10 (47%)
5-5 (50%) on the road	Location	5-3 (62%) at home
10-10 (50%) as favorite	Status	8-3 (72%) as underdog
5-5 (50%) as road favorite	Location Status	5-0 (100%) as home underdog
1-1 (50%)	Head To Head	1-1 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 10-10 (50%) against the over on the season.
• Portland is 11-8 (57%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 5-5 (50%) against the over at home.
• The Blazers are 4-4 (50%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	122.2	106.3	48.7	36.3	44.8	26.2	12.8	10.6	5.4	W11	10-0
POR	118.4	121.1	44.5	32.3	45.7	25.1	16.8	8.8	4.9	L1	3-7

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
• Alex Caruso (right quad soreness) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.

Portland

• Donovan Clingan (illness) is OUT
• Scoot Henderson (left hamstring tear) is OUT.
• Jrue Holiday (strained right calf) is OUT.
• Damian Lillard (torn left Achilles tendon injury management) is OUT.
• Matisse Thybulle (left thumb ligament tear) is OUT.
• Blake Wesley (fractured right foot) is OUT.

Series History

OKC is 1-1 against Portland so far this season (1-0 at home, 0-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-11.5)

Oklahoma City has been challenged in the last couple of games, but credit at least part of that to the competitive level that NBA Cup games bring. The Thunder are due for another blowout win, and why not one week after destroying the Blazers back in OKC? Sure, OKC is without Isaiah Hartenstein for a couple of weeks, but Jalen Williams has a game under his belt, and Aaron Wiggins is making his return after sitting out due to injury since the loss in Portland a little over three weeks ago. I like the Thunder by a lot in this one.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (233.5)

In the first meeting between these two, the point total was 240, but Portland relied on a barrage of late threes not only to push their score higher, but to win the game. OKC has learned a lot since then, and even though teams somehow find a way to hit big shots against the reigning champs, the defensive stops have come at all the right times. Unless Portland somehow keeps it close—which they weren’t able to for more than the first few minutes of last week’s matchup—the point total is not going over the line this time.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	18-2	11-8	5-15
Zack	19-1	10-10	9-11
Craig	19-1	10-10	6-14