Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Hosts Jazz as Monster Favorite in Bounceback Opportunity

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-19.5)

Total: 242.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Jazz
19-18 (51%)	All	19-16 (54%)
11-9 (55%) at home	Location	6-10 (37%) on the road
19-18 (51%) as favorite	Status	16-15 (51%) as underdog
11-9 (55%) as home favorite	Location Status	5-9 (35%) as road underdog
2-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-2 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 18-19 (48%) against the over on the season.
• Utah is 22-13 (62%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 10-10 (50%) against the over at home.
• The Jazz are 7-9 (43%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
UTA	119.6	127.0	46.3	35.6	44.4	30.1	15.8	7.7	3.4	L4	2-8
OKC	121.2	107.6	49.1	36.5	43.9	25.8	12.5	10.3	5.4	L2	5-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (lower back soreness) is OUT.
• Ousmane Dieng (strained right calf) is OUT.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (right knee bursitis) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained left soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jaylin Williams (right heel bursitis) is OUT.

Jazz

• Ace Bailey (strained left hip flexor) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Elijah Harkless (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Walker Kessler (left shoulder injury recovery) is OUT.
• Kevin Love (rest) is OUT.
• Georges Niang (fourth metatarsal stress reaction in left foot) is OUT.
• John Tonje (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Series History

OKC is 2-0 against Utah so far this season (0-0 at home, 2-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-19.5)

Oklahoma City needs a win in a bad way. They haven’t lost three consecutive games since April of 2024, and that’s not going to happen tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable to play, but even if he is unable to go, I think the defense locks in to get some stops, which will create easier scoring opportunities on the other end. As a result, the Thunder will win this one convincingly, regardless of the awful outings on Sunday and Monday.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (242.5)

There’s no way this point total goes over this number. OKC and Utah have two of the highest-scoring offenses in the NBA, which screams a ton of points, but the Thunder has the top defense in the league, and that’s one area where they’ve actually done a pretty good job lately. Meanwhile, Utah has the highest-scoring defense. OKC is going to push the tempo and rack up some scoring, but I think they blow the Jazz out by smothering them with defense, keeping the overall point total well below this line.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	31-6	19-18	16-21
Zack	30-7	21-16	19-18
Craig	30-7	12-24-1	12-25