Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Heads Into Minnesota as Slight Favorite in Hartenstein’s Return

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Target Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota)

Spread: Thunder (-6)

Total: 225.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Timberwolves
23-25 (47%)	All	21-27 (43%)
11-11 (50%) on the road	Location	10-14 (41%) at home
23-25 (47%) as favorite	Status	5-6 (45%) as underdog
11-11 (50%) as road favorite	Location Status	1-2 (33%) as home underdog
0-2 (0%)	Head To Head	2-0 (100%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 25-23 (52%) against the over on the season.
• Minnesota is 22-26 (45%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 12-10 (54%) against the over at home.
• The Timberwolves are 7-17 (29%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	120.5	107.6	49.0	35.8	43.8	25.4	12.2	9.8	5.9	W1	7-3
MIN	119.0	114.1	48.1	37.1	45.0	26.6	14.5	8.7	5.6	W2	4-6

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained right adductor) is OUT
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Cason Wallace (left hip soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (back spasms) is OUT.
• Enrique Freeman (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Rudy Gobert (sprained left ankle) is OUT.
• Terrence Shannon Jr. (strained abductor hallucis in left foot) is OUT.
• Rocco Sikarsky (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-6)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are probably about as close to a rival to the Thunder as anyone. 12 out of the last 19 meetings (including last year’s playoffs) have been decided by single digits, and that is likely to happen again tonight. Although Isaiah Hartenstein is making his return for OKC, the Thunder is still without Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are almost entirely healthy. While I do think the Thunder can pull out the win—Minnesota has been streaky lately—I do think the game will be decided in the last couple of possessions.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (225.5)

In the many meetings between these two teams over the last couple of seasons, only a handful have had high scores. Many of them have been defensive bloodbaths, and this one should be no different. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards are two of the league’s most dynamic scorers, but their teams have some of the best defenses in the NBA, so give me the under here.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	38-10	22-26	21-27
Zack	38-10	25-23	24-24
Craig	38-10	16-31-1	18-30