Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
Total: 214.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Bucks |
| 27-28 (49%) | All | 23-29 (44%) |
| 13-15 (46%) at home | Location | 12-16 (42%) on the road |
| 27-28 (49%) as favorite | Status | 16-15 (51%) as underdog |
| 13-15 (46%) as home favorite | Location Status | 9-9 (50%) as road underdog |
| 1-0 (100%) | Head To Head | 0-1 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 31-24 (56%) against the over on the season.
- Milwaukee is 21-31 (40%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 14-14 (50%) against the over at home.
- The Bucks are 9-19 (32%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 111.8 | 115.6 | 48.1 | 39.2 | 41.1 | 26.1 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | W1 | 4-6 |
| OKC | 120.2 | 108.0 | 48.9 | 36.2 | 43.6 | 25.6 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | W2 | 5-5 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Branden Carlson (lower back spasms) is OUT.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (strained abdominal) is OUT.
- Isaiah Hartenstein (right soleus injury management) is OUT.
- Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE.
Bucks
- Alex Antetokounmpo (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (strained right calf) is OUT.
- Kyle Kuzma (left foot soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Taurean Prince (neck surgery) is OUT.
- Ryan Rollins (plantar fasciitis in right foot) is QUESTIONABLE.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-12.5)
This spread can be a little tricky because I’m assuming it’s based on Jalen Williams sitting out after appearing to re-aggravate a right hamstring injury Wednesday night in Phoenix. Also, Chet Holmgren could end up missing after colliding with Williams in the second half against the Suns, but it’s hard to say. Still, OKC’s depth has played lights out lately, and with how bad Milwaukee has been, especially since Giannis’s injury, this feels like a great opportunity for the Thunder to get a big win in front of the home crowd before entering the All-Star Break.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (214.5)
This point total is so low, even when dealing with a bad team like Milwaukee. The Bucks have one of the lowest-scoring offenses and a very mediocre defense, but OKC has scored a lot of points this week, and I think they’ll continue that trend tonight. The Thunder defense could definitely hold Milwaukee to below 100 points, but I’m fully expecting OKC to make up for any extra points necessary to push the total over the line.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 43-12 | 26-29 | 25-30 |
| Zack | 43-12 | 29-26 | 29-26 |
| Craig | 42-12 | 18-35-1 | 22-32 |