Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Heads to Dallas as Massive Favorite Against Mavs

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Total: 233.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Mavericks
31-30 (50%)	All	33-26 (55%)
16-13 (55%) on the road	Location	20-12 (62%) at home
28-28 (49%) as favorite	Status	12-7 (63%) as underdog
14-12 (53%) as road favorite	Location Status	8-2 (80%) as home underdog
1-1 (50%)	Head To Head	1-1 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 35-26 (57%) against the over on the season.
• Dallas is 28-31 (57%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 19-10 (65%) against the over on the road.
• The Mavericks are 16-16 (50%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	119.5	108.2	48.4	36.5	43.9	25.7	12.8	9.9	5.7	W1	6-4
DAL	114.4	118.0	47.3	34.3	44.7	25.1	14.8	7.5	5.3	L2	2-8

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Mavericks

• Marvin Bagley III (sprained neck) is OUT.
• Moussa Cisse (G League — two-way) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Cooper Flagg (sprained left midfoot) is OUT.
• Kyrie Irving (left knee surgery) is OUT.
• Miles Kelly (G League — two-way) is DOUBTFUL.
• Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery) is OUT.
• Naji Marshall (right finger contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Caleb Martin (lower back soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• P.J. Washington (sprained left ankle) is DOUBTFUL.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-15.5)

The Mavericks have lost 12 of their last 14 games, and 7 of those losses have been double-digit defeats. OKC isn’t completely healthy yet, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back, and it looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. Shai’s absence did the Thunder some good, though, as OKC’s backcourt seems more suited for stepping up when he’s off the floor. This should be a good game to cover the spread simply because the Thunder’s depth is so much better.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (233.5)

While I do expect OKC to win big, I anticipate it to be more because of defensive stops than winning a shootout. The Thunder will score plenty of points, but the most impressive part of this game should be the defensive effort to create chaos and hold Dallas to well below their typical scoring average.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	46-14	27-33	26-34
Zack	47-14	31-30	30-31
Craig	45-15	22-37-1	24-36