Thunder Against the Spread | Thunder Favored Against Nuggets At Home as Ajay Mitchell Returns

Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Total: 232.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Nuggets
31-34 (47%)	All	35-29 (54%)
15-18 (45%) at home	Location	21-13 (61%) on the road
28-33 (45%) as favorite	Status	13-7 (65%) as underdog
14-18 (43%) as home favorite	Location Status	9-2 (81%) as road underdog
1-1 (50%)	Head To Head	1-1 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 35-30 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 39-24-1 (61%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 16-17 (48%) against the over at home.
• The Nuggets are 24-10 (70%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DEN	120.2	116.5	49.2	38.9	43.0	28.0	13.1	6.9	4.0	L1	5-5
OKC	118.6	107.6	48.1	36.1	43.9	25.5	12.7	9.8	5.5	W5	8-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Alex Caruso (left hip contusion) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (left calf contusion) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (flu) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (G League – on assignment) is OUT.
• Curtis Jones (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Jamal Murray (sprained left ankle) is AVAILABLE.
• KJ Simpson (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Peyton Watson (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-6.5)

OKC is still nearly as healthy as we would like them to be, and that obviously makes this game a lot more interesting. Chet Holmgren is OUT with the flu, but Ajay Mitchel is making his return to play after missing 20 games. As for Denver, they have pretty much everybody available, and even though Jamal Murray is questionable with a sprained ankle, I also think he’ll end up playing. When these two teams met a little over a week ago, the Thunder narrowly won in overtime, and I expect a similarly close game tonight. These two teams are very familiar with each other at this point, and I’ve got the Thunder winning at home, but expect another clutch-time finish.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (232.5)

It took overtime to go over this point total last time, and unless we get another extended game, I don’t see the total score going over again. Sure, you’ve got two of the league’s top offenses going at it, but the OKC struggles to score against teams that take care of the ball, and while Denver’s defense has been pretty bad this season, they’re crafty enough when it comes to the Thunder to get stops. I like the under tonight.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	50-14	29-35	27-37
Zack	51-14	31-34	32-33
Craig	49-15	24-39-1	26-38