Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio, Texas)
Spread: Thunder (+2.5)
Total: 219.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Spurs |
| 46-47 (49%) | All | 55-41-1 (57%) |
| 23-22 (51%) on the road | Location | 29-20-1 (56%) at home |
| 4-2 (66%) as underdog | Status | 40-34-1 (54%) as favorite |
| 3-2 (60%) as road underdog | Location Status | 23-20-1 (53%) as home favorite |
| 3-5 (37%) | Head To Head | 5-3 (62%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 54-39 (58%) against the over on the season.
- San Antonio is 45-51-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 28-17 (62%) against the over on the road.
- The Spurs are 21-26 (44%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 120.9 | 107.3 | 49.4 | 38.7 | 41.0 | 26.8 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.6 | W2 | 9-1 |
| SAS | 116.4 | 106.3 | 48.1 | 37.2 | 47.6 | 25.1 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 7.8 | L2 | 6-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
Spurs
- NONE
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+2.5)
Oklahoma City was an underdog in Game 3, but they proved why championship experience so often beats out youthful talent. Despite going down 15-0 right out of the gate, the Thunder fought back—little by little—to win by 15. With a 2-1 lead, Game 4 is leaning heavily on the Spurs in terms of pressure, whereas OKC is probably feeling pretty good. San Antonio SHOULD win this game in terms of a typical NBA Playoff narrative, but I think the Thunder—even with missing key players—have far too much depth and resolution to let one go easily. I expect a close game, and while I do expect OKC to win, even if the Spurs do pull it out, it won’t be by more than 2 points.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (219.5)
As good as these defenses have been in moments, the offenses are doing what it takes to put points on the board. The Spurs came back down to earth with their three-point shooting last game, so don’t be surprised if they hit some in this one. Meanwhile, OKC has shared the ball well, and if one guy isn’t hitting, someone else is. I think this goes over the point total for the fourth straight game.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 73-19 | 40-52 | 36-56 |
| Zack | 76-17 | 49-44 | 46-47 |
| Craig | 74-18 | 35-56-1 | 37-55 |