Oklahoma City Thunder | Western Conference Finals Game 7 Preview: San Antonio Spurs

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs have been at each other’s throats for a couple of weeks now, and now the moment that every sports fan loves has finally arrived: Game 7.

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Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Slightly Favored at Home Over Spurs in Game 7 of Western Conference Finals

No game in this series has been decided by fewer than 7 points, but that doesn’t mean this one will follow suit. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still looking for a good game by his own standards, and Victor Wembanyama is as focused as he ever has been. I think they both play well, but the real needle-mover in this series has been bench play. OKC’s backups have played extremely well at home, and I see them doing that tonight. I expect a tight game that comes down to the final minutes, with the Spurs fouling the Thunder for some late free throws to cover the spread.

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Oklahoma City Thunder | Western Conference Finals Game 5 Preview: San Antonio Spurs

Historically, when a playoff series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series almost 82% of the time. This one is kind of a big deal.

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Oklahoma City Thunder | Western Conference Finals Game 4 Preview: San Antonio Spurs

“Game 4 is an important game” is a severe understatement. Either way, the Thunder is heading back to OKC with homecourt advantage, so the pressure is definitely less than if they had given away Game 3 to the Spurs. Still, you don’t want to let your opponent gain any momentum in this series, and if San Antonio were to win big to tie up the series, they would likely be feeling pretty good about themselves. On the flip side, San Antonio should be feeling all the pressure in the world to win this one. Going down 3-1 before heading back to the loudest arena in the NBA would not be good news for the Spurs.

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Thunder Against the Spread | Spurs Favored Over Thunder in San Antonio for WCF Game 4

Oklahoma City was an underdog in Game 3, but they proved why championship experience so often beats out youthful talent. Despite going down 15-0 right out of the gate, the Thunder fought back—little by little—to win by 15. With a 2-1 lead, Game 4 is leaning heavily on the Spurs in terms of pressure, whereas OKC is probably feeling pretty good. San Antonio SHOULD win this game in terms of a typical NBA Playoff narrative, but I think the Thunder—even with missing key players—have far too much depth and resolution to let one go easily. I expect a close game, and while I do expect OKC to win, even if the Spurs do pull it out, it won’t be by more than 2 points.

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Oklahoma City Thunder | Western Conference Finals Game 3 Preview: San Antonio Spurs

Wemby had a monster stat line in Game 1, and SGA looked like the reigning MVP in Game 2. Either one—or both—could have another big night in Game 3, but as the series goes longer, the team with the better “other guys” is going to have a much better chance at pulling out the win. OKC is about as deep as they come, but San Antonio has its fair share of depth.

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Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Enters Game 3 of WCF Against Spurs as Rare Underdog

OKC is 2-1 in clutch games out of 10 playoff games played so far. San Antonio is 2-4 in clutch games out of 13 playoff games played so far. Both Games 1 and 2 were close ones, with each team taking a win apiece, and Game 3 should be another game decided in the clutch. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning clutch player of the year, and though he’s not been nearly as hot late in games in the playoffs, I trust him over Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, or anybody else San Antonio has. I think OKC pulls this one out to take a 2-1 series lead.

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Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to Bounce Back in Game 2 of WCF Favored Over Spurs

Same spread, different game. As good as Game 1 was for basketball fans in general, the Thunder didn’t play all that well outside of Alex Caruso popping off for a career playoff-high of 31 points, just 1 point shy of tying his career-high. Jalen Williams was solid in his return to action after missing nearly a month, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a pretty rough game, and Chet was generally bad after having a great run in the playoffs so far. Victory Wembanyama was an animal in Game 1, and the Spurs are definitely the Thunder’s best competition in the league, but OKC has lost back-to-back games just 4 times this season, never back-to-back at home. I anticipate a bounce back for OKC, resulting in a solid cover.

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