Thunder Against the Spread | Spurs Favored Over Thunder in San Antonio for WCF Game 4

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio, Texas)

Spread: Thunder (+2.5)

Total: 219.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Spurs
46-47 (49%)	All	55-41-1 (57%)
23-22 (51%) on the road	Location	29-20-1 (56%) at home
4-2 (66%) as underdog	Status	40-34-1 (54%) as favorite
3-2 (60%) as road underdog	Location Status	23-20-1 (53%) as home favorite
3-5 (37%)	Head To Head	5-3 (62%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 54-39 (58%) against the over on the season.
• San Antonio is 45-51-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 28-17 (62%) against the over on the road.
• The Spurs are 21-26 (44%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	120.9	107.3	49.4	38.7	41.0	26.8	11.9	10.6	4.6	W2	9-1
SAS	116.4	106.3	48.1	37.2	47.6	25.1	15.7	8.3	7.8	L2	6-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.

Spurs

• NONE

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+2.5)

Oklahoma City was an underdog in Game 3, but they proved why championship experience so often beats out youthful talent. Despite going down 15-0 right out of the gate, the Thunder fought back—little by little—to win by 15. With a 2-1 lead, Game 4 is leaning heavily on the Spurs in terms of pressure, whereas OKC is probably feeling pretty good. San Antonio SHOULD win this game in terms of a typical NBA Playoff narrative, but I think the Thunder—even with missing key players—have far too much depth and resolution to let one go easily. I expect a close game, and while I do expect OKC to win, even if the Spurs do pull it out, it won’t be by more than 2 points.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (219.5)

As good as these defenses have been in moments, the offenses are doing what it takes to put points on the board. The Spurs came back down to earth with their three-point shooting last game, so don’t be surprised if they hit some in this one. Meanwhile, OKC has shared the ball well, and if one guy isn’t hitting, someone else is. I think this goes over the point total for the fourth straight game.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	73-19	40-52	36-56
Zack	76-17	49-44	46-47
Craig	74-18	35-56-1	37-55