Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
Total: 216.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Spurs |
| 46-48 (48%) | All | 56-41-1 (57%) |
| 23-25 (47%) at home | Location | 29-21 (58%) on the road |
| 42-45 (48%) as favorite | Status | 15-7 (68%) as underdog |
| 22-25 (46%) as home favorite | Location Status | 12-7 (63%) as road underdog |
| 3-6 (33%) | Head To Head | 6-3 (66%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 54-40 (57%) against the over on the season.
- San Antonio is 45-52-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 26-22 (54%) against the over at home.
- The Spurs are 24-25-1 (49%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 115.5 | 104.6 | 47.4 | 36.6 | 47.9 | 25.1 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 7.9 | W1 | 6-4 |
| OKC | 117.7 | 106.9 | 48.0 | 37.2 | 41.5 | 26.4 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.7 | L1 | 8-2 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
Spurs
- NONE
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)
OKC is still without Ajay Mitchell and likely still without Jalen Wiliams, but playing down a couple of key players is nothing new to this squad. The winner of this game is likely to end up winning the series, so expect another dogfight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played pretty poorly in Game 4, but the Thunder bench was about as awful as they could be following a historic Game 3. I expect SGA to look more like the reigning back-to-back MVP, and the bench to be much more relaxed playing at home. Victor Wembanyama has been tough to slow down, so what better time for Chet Holmgren to offer a solid contribution? I like the Thunder to win and cover this small spread.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (216.5)
Game 4 was an anomaly in terms of point total, and I wouldn’t expect a blowout on either side in this one. Neither team played particularly great offense on Sunday night, which gives me even more of a reason to expect a higher-scoring affair for Game 5.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 74-19 | 41-52 | 36-57 |
| Zack | 76-18 | 49-45 | 46-48 |
| Craig | 74-19 | 35-57-1 | 37-56 |