Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored at Home Over Spurs for Critical Game 5

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

Total: 216.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Spurs
46-48 (48%)	All	56-41-1 (57%)
23-25 (47%) at home	Location	29-21 (58%) on the road
42-45 (48%) as favorite	Status	15-7 (68%) as underdog
22-25 (46%) as home favorite	Location Status	12-7 (63%) as road underdog
3-6 (33%)	Head To Head	6-3 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 54-40 (57%) against the over on the season.
• San Antonio is 45-52-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 26-22 (54%) against the over at home.
• The Spurs are 24-25-1 (49%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
SAS	115.5	104.6	47.4	36.6	47.9	25.1	15.5	8.5	7.9	W1	6-4
OKC	117.7	106.9	48.0	37.2	41.5	26.4	12.6	10.5	4.7	L1	8-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.

Spurs

• NONE

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)

OKC is still without Ajay Mitchell and likely still without Jalen Wiliams, but playing down a couple of key players is nothing new to this squad. The winner of this game is likely to end up winning the series, so expect another dogfight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played pretty poorly in Game 4, but the Thunder bench was about as awful as they could be following a historic Game 3. I expect SGA to look more like the reigning back-to-back MVP, and the bench to be much more relaxed playing at home. Victor Wembanyama has been tough to slow down, so what better time for Chet Holmgren to offer a solid contribution? I like the Thunder to win and cover this small spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (216.5)

Game 4 was an anomaly in terms of point total, and I wouldn’t expect a blowout on either side in this one. Neither team played particularly great offense on Sunday night, which gives me even more of a reason to expect a higher-scoring affair for Game 5.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	74-19	41-52	36-57
Zack	76-18	49-45	46-48
Craig	74-19	35-57-1	37-56