Tip-Off: 8 PM CT
Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)
Spread: Denver (-12)
Thunder/Nuggets Trends Against The Spread
|14-10 (58.3%)||11-13 (45.8%)|
|10-3 (76.9%) on the road||5-7 (41.7%) at home|
|13-10 (56.5%) as underdog||9-7 (56.2%) as favorite|
|10-3 (76.9%) as road dog||4-4 (50%) at home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (0%)||1-0 (100%)|
Thunder/Nuggets Trends Against The Total
Oklahoma City is hitting the over 56.5% of the time this season with Denver going over 73.9% of the time. That indicates that tonight’s affair between the two teams will be high scoring. Even when considering road values and the insanely high total of 222 the numbers still look promising. OKC hits the over 50% of the time on the road and Denver is consistently over at home with a 72.7% mark. When the game total is greater than 205 then the Thunder are 13-10-1 (56.5%) at hitting the over. Meanwhile Denver is 17-6-1 (73.9%) at going over the 205 mark.
To move it a step further, the Nuggets are 5-1 at hitting the over when the total is between 220.5 and 223.5.
In the first meeting between Oklahoma City and Denver Nikola Jokic was unstoppable with 27 points and 12 boards. Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray was held to a quiet 5 points over 21 minutes of playing time but he also possesses the capability of producing big numbers on any given night.
For the Thunder the status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has to be a concern. He post 14 points and dished out 7 assists in the first meeting between the two. Should he not be able to go tonight it could be a significant blow to OKC’s production. That said, I believe Lu Dort is the key for the Thunder tonight. He scored a team high 20 points in the first meeting and his defensive presence is one of the best in the NBA.
Game One | Nuggets 119 – Thunder 101
Why The Thunder Will Cover
History isn’t on Oklahoma City’s side this season but the stats certainly are. The Thunder are making a living as road underdogs. With a 10-3 record as road dogs, OKC is averaging better away from home than they are on the entire season against the spread (14-10).
The Thunder are making a living as road underdogs. With a 10-3 record as road dogs, OKC is averaging better away from home than they are on the entire season against the spread (14-10). Meanwhile Denver is only 5-7 at home against the spread and 4-4 as a home favorite.
Oklahoma City is 6-4 against the spread over the last 10 games and have coved in their last five consecutive road games.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, Denver is most likely going to be without shooting guard Gary Harris tonight. On the season Harris is averaging 10.1 points per game and produced 11 points in a starting role against OKC in the first matchup.
Taking OKC (+12) is definitely the safest pick in my opinion.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over
I’ll be honest here. The total of 222 scares me and I’d stay away from it. That said, I do believe the game will barely hit the over. The two teams combined for 220 points in the first meeting this season which leads me to believe that 222 isn’t that far off.
Oklahoma City is averaging nearly 108 points per game and Denver is producing an average of 116 each night. Defensively the Thunder are allowing opponents to score an average of 114.1 points per game and the Nuggets are giving up 119.1 points per game. Both the offensive and defensive stats trend towards the over here and when you add that both teams are well north of hitting the over 50% of the time this season that makes the play a no-brainer.
On The Season
We just started this feature so bear with us.
Against the Spread: 0-1 Last Pick: Lakers (+12) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 1-0 Last Pick: LAL/OKC Over 217
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