Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Portland (-6.5)
Blazers/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|14-12 (53.8%)||16-10 (61.5%)|
|9-4 (69.2%) on the road||5-7 (41.7%) at home|
|7-7 (50%) as favorite||15-10 (60%) as underdog|
|3-1 (75%) as road favorite||4-7 (36.4%) at home dog|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (100%)|
Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Total
Both teams are hitting the over greater than 50% of the time this season. OKC is going over the total 52% of the time and Portland is going over in 57.7% of its games this season. Both teams hit the over an equal 56.5% of the time when playing an opponent who averages 102 points or more per game. Portland comes to Oklahoma City with an average of 115.5 points scored each contest while the Thunder are putting up an average of 107.6 points per game.
Al Horford has been putting up good stats for Oklahoma City this season but over the last five games the big man has been exceptional. Averaging 20.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists over the last five, Horford is exceeding his season averages in both scoring and dishing out dimes. In the absence of Portland center Jusuf Nurkic, Horford should be on tap for another big night.
Nurkic isn’t the only key player who will be absent from the Portland lineup tonight. Shooting guard CJ McCollum is also recovering from a hairline fracture in his left foot. That leaves Damian Lillard as the only star figure on the floor for the Blazers, but we’re not going to pretend he doesn’t have an insane history against the Thunder.
We should also tip our hats to former OKC center Enes Kanter who will most likely be drawing the start tonight.
Game One: OKC 125 – Portland 122
Why The Thunder Will Cover
For the first time in three games the Thunder aren’t a double-figure underdog. It is, however, the fourth consecutive game of being a dog.
Oklahoma City is 15-10 against the spread as an underdog this season but just 4-7 as an underdog at home. That said, Portland is 9-4 against the spread this season but just 7-7 as a favorite. The Blazers have only played twice this season as a 6-to-9 point favorite and are 1-1 in those games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 5-3 on the year as a 6-to-9 point dog.
The trends that I like the most for the Thunder tonight are that they have an 8-4 record against the spread against teams that win 55%, or more, of their games and are 14-8 against the spread after day off. Then there’s the recent history between these two. Oklahoma City beat Portland on January 25th as a 4.5 point underdog. So, yeah, give me OKC at +6.5.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over
This is one of the rare occasions where I actually like the total pick more than I do against the spread. I still think it’ll be close to the 225 line but we’re most likely looking at a final around 115-112.
Oklahoma City hits the over 58.3% of the time at home and Portland rings it up 61.5% of the time on the road. What really swings it for me here though is that the Blazers are 4-1 at hitting the over when the line is between 224.5 and 227.5 and the Thunder are 4-0 at hitting the over in that same situation. All trends are that this game is heading towards the over.
On The Season
We just started this feature so bear with us.
Against the Spread: 2-1 Last Pick: OKC (+11.5) vs. Milwaukee
Over/Under: 2-1 Last Pick: OKC/MIL Under 228.5
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