Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | It’ll Be Tough To Cover vs. Memphis

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 1:00 PM CT

Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City)

Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

Total: 221

Grizzlies/Thunder Trends Against The Spread

GrizzliesThunder
All
19-14-1 (57%)21-17 (55%)
Location
9-5 (64%) on the road8-11 (42%) at home
Status
7-5-1 (58%) as a favorite19-17 (52%) as an underdog or pick
Location Status
3-1 (75%) as a road favorite7-11 (38%) as a home underdog or pick
Head To Head
1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)

Thunder/Grizzlies Trends Against The Total

In the previous meeting between these two teams this season they combined for 235 points to hit the over. That is certainly a rarity though as Memphis is only hitting the over 45% of the time this season and Oklahoma City is hitting it 48% of the time.

Possibly the craziest stat with the over/under in this situation is that Memphis is only hitting the over 39% of the time following a day off and OKC is nailing the over a whopping 75% of the time in the second game of a back-to-back.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
MEM111.8110.646.545.527.14.49.8L15-5
 OKC105.9111.544.744.523.14.36.8L15-5

Key Players

All five Memphis starters scored in double figures in the first meeting this season. Grayson Allen and Jonas Valanciunas paced the Grizzlies with 22 points each in that game but it’s the big man that should be the biggest concern this afternoon. With 12 boards to his credit as well, Valanciunas recorded a double-double against the Thunder last month and truly possesses the ability to be a massive thread inside.

The good news for OKC is that all five of its starters were in double figures against Memphis last month as well. The questionable news her though centers around point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is listed as questionable for this afternoon. SGA matched Allen and Valanciunas from Memphis with 22 points on February 17th and would leave a huge void if he were not on the court today.

Series History

Game 1 | Grizzlies 122 – Thunder 113

Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+6.5)

I’ve got to be honest here. I really don’t like the position that OKC is in right now, especially with the possibility of SGA not being available. Memphis is strong on the road where they cover the spread 65% of the time and Oklahoma City is far from fantastic at home with just a 42% cover rate against the spread. Even more specifically the Grizzlies are 3-1 as a road favorite and the Thunder are 7-11 as a home underdog.

Oklahoma City is already 0-1 against the spread when facing Memphis this season and the Thunder are only covering the spread 37% of the time in the second game of a back-to-back. After getting pasted by the Knicks on Saturday we could very well be looking at a two-game slide.

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (221)

I think this is going to be a close one. OKC is strong against the total in the second game of a back-to-back but Memphis is terrible following a day off. They hit the over last month but when the line is 205 or greater the Thunder only exceed it 48% of the time and the Grizzlies 45% of the time.

On the other hand OKC exceeds the over 57% of the time at home and Memphis does so 53% of the time on the road. This game could literally go either way which makes it so difficult to pick. What seals it for me on the total is that the Grizzlies are 11-17-1 against the over following an off day and that’s going to swing me towards the under.

On The Season

In a bit of an oddity yesterday we hit the spread pick yesterday but missed on the over/under.

Against the Spread: 4-10 Last Pick: New York (-5.5) vs. OKC

Over/Under: 10-4 Last Pick: OKC/New York under (213.5)

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