Tip-Off: 8:00 PM CT
Location: United Center (Chicago)
Spread: Bulls (-5.5)
Thunder/Bulls Trends Against The Spread
|22-17 (56%)||20-16-1 (55%)|
|13-6 (68%) on the road||8-12-1 (40%) at home|
|20-17 (54%) as an underdog or pick||5-6-1 (45%) as a favorite|
|12-6 (66%) as a road dog||3-4-1 (42%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Bulls/Thunder Trends Against The Total
Chicago is 19-17-1 overall against the over this season.
OKC is 5-1 against the over this season when the total is between 223.5 and 226.5.
The Bulls are hitting the over 50% of the time at home this season.
The Thunder are only hitting the over 38% of the time on the road this season.
This game looks like it’ll be a battle of the guards between OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chicago’s Zach LaVine. In the previous meeting this season LaVine paced all scorers with 35 points while also grabbing 7 rebounds and dishing out 6 assists.
SGA was right on Lavine’s heels with a 33-point effort on January 15th. The Thunder guard also produced a double-double in the overtime win by producing 10 assists.
Game 1 | Thunder 127 – Bulls 125
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+5.5)
Both teams have a similar overall winning percentage against the spread this season but Oklahoma City is a much stronger road team than Chicago is a home team. The Bulls are just 8-12-1 against the spread at home this season and the Thunder are 13-6 against the spread on the road.
As a road underdog OKC is 12-6 against the spread this season and Chicago is just 3-4-1 as a home favorite. The final contributing factor here for me is that the Thunder are covering the spread 60% of the time this season following an off day.
On January 15th Oklahoma City beat Chicago, in OKC, as a 2.5 point underdog.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (223.5)
Here’s where Zack and I are going to disagree. I have the game going to the over and he’s got the under. I think it’ll be close either way. Oklahoma City hits the over 50% of the time on the road and Chicago hits the over 52% of the time at home. There are concerning factors like the Thunder only hitting the over 41% of the time after an off day. However, that’s offset by Chicago hitting the over 55% of the time after a day off.
There’s a history between these two of hitting the over this season and I think they continue that tonight. The Thunder are 5-1 (83%) against the over when the total is between 223.5 and 226.5 points. Chicago is 7-5 (58%) in the same situation.
On The Season
I lost on both fronts Sunday which puts me on a two-game losing streak against the over.
Against the Spread: 4-11 Last Pick: Memphis (-6.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 10-5 Last Pick: Memphis/OKC under (221)
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