Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)
Spread: Wizards (-10.5)
Thunder/Wizards Trends Against The Spread
|26-31 (45%)||30-26 (53%)|
|16-12 (57%) on the road||14-14 (50%) at home|
|24-31 (43%) as an underdog or pick||6-8 (42%) as a favorite|
|15-12 (55%) as a road dog||4-6 (40%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Wizards Trends Against The Total
OKC is 27-29-1 against the over this season.
Washington is 26-29-1 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 33% of the time on the road.
The Wizards are hitting the over 55% of the time at home.
I think this is a night where Russell Westbrook can get whatever he wants from the Thunder. The former OKC All-Star is averaging a triple-double, as he usually does, with 21.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game. Friday night he went off for 36 points and 15 rebounds in Washington’s overtime win over New Orleans. That said, I think Bradley Beal poses the biggest threat to Oklahoma City. His 31 points per game are enough to just barely edge out Steph Curry as the NBA’s leading scorer and with Dort riding the pine tonight I’m not really sure how the Thunder can counter him. Beal is averaging 33 points per game over the last four and just dropped 37 on Detroit Saturday.
The Thunder injury list isn’t growing anymore but it is still very much revolving. Lu Dort got OKC too close to upsetting Toronto on Sunday with his 29 point outburst. That was enough to earn him a spot on the inactive list tonight with a sore hip.
I do think that this is a good spot for Moses Brown. The Wizards are a bit soft inside without Thomas Bryant being available and that could set up Theo Maledon to rack up some assists.
First meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+10.5)
After two close calls against Detroit and Toronto, expect OKC to go back to full tanking mode tonight in the Nation’s Capitol. The bottom line is that there just won’t be enough firepower in the Thunder lineup to keep pace with the Wizards. The Thunder are in the second night of a back-to-back and they’ve been terrible all season long in this situation, only covering 38% of the time.
I bought in on the +5.5 against Toronto yesterday and they lost by 6. There’s nothing here to cause me to believe that they can keep it within 11 of the Wizards tonight.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (229.5)
This game has to get to 230 points for it to hit the over. While that’s entirely possible due to the lack of defense that going to be played tonight, the Thunder are 0-3 against the over this season when the line was between 230.5 and 233.5. While we’re just under that at this point, we are certainly trending in that direction.
The Wizards are only hitting the over 41% of the time following a day off and just 47% of the time when the line is greater than 205.
I’m less comfortable with this pick than I am against the spread but I’m still committed to the under tonight.
On The Season
Previously I had stated that I’m not picking OKC to cover the spread again this season. Last night I picked them to cover at +5.5 against a Toronto team that was resting its top four scorers. The Thunder lost by 6. I’m not picking OKC to cover the spread again this season!
Against the Spread: 12-17 Last Pick: OKC (+5.5) at Toronto
Over/Under: 17-12 Last Pick: OKC/Toronto under (220.5)
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