Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Pelicans (-14.5)
Suns/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|40-23 (63%)||29-35 (45%)|
|18-11 (62%) on the road||10-22 (31%) at home|
|31-19 (62%) as a favorite||27-35 (43%) as an underdog or pick|
|11-9 (55%) as a road favorite||9-22 (29%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Suns/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 31-32-1 against the over this season.
Phoenix is 34-29 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 62% of the time at home.
The Suns are hitting the over 48% of the time on the road.
Chris Paul and Devin Booker are definitely two guys you want to keep an eye on in this game. Paul is averaging 24.5 points per game against the Thunder this year. Booker didn’t play in the first meeting between the two but dropped 32 points on the Thunder the second time around.
I feel like Oklahoma City is in a similar position as Saturday night’s loss against Indiana. While Lu Dort is active for this game, I really don’t see him as having a favorable matchup. That’s an across the board thing with all positions for OKC though. I honestly don’t see a positive matchup for the Thunder. If I had to bet on who will produce the most for the Thunder it would be on Darius Bazley. He scored 10 points in the first game against Phoenix this season but didn’t play in the second. Another guy to keep an eye on is Aleksej Pokusevski but he’s listed as a game time decision.
Game 1 | Oklahoma City 102 – Phoenix 97
Game 2 | Phoenix 140 – Oklahoma City 103
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+14.5)
How can you not pick the Suns after the performance Oklahoma City put out there Saturday night. I get it that they’ll have access to more players than they had against the Pacers but there’s still the issue of Phoenix pursuing the top seed in the West (only a half game back) and the Thunder pursuing a lottery pick. That is the most difficult factor when determining how competitive OKC is going to be.
The Thunder are down to just a 31% cover rate against the spread this season and only 29% at home. They’re 1-1 against Phoenix this season but that one win against the spread came with SGA and Al Horford on the floor. After a day of rest the Suns cover the spread 62% of the time and Oklahoma City covers just 46% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (222.5)
Oklahoma City and Indianapolis destroyed the over last night and tonight’s total is ten points less. I don’t see how you can’t love this spot for the over. The Thunder are hitting the over 66% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back and the Suns are hitting it 56% of the time following a day off. When the line is greater than 205 Phoenix hits it 54% of the time and when it’s between 221.5 and 224.5 the Suns are going over 66% of the time.
On The Season
I nailed both the total and the over/under with the Pacers on Saturday night. That was definitely a good step in the right direction for the season totals as we are now back to .500 combined.
Against the Spread: 16-19 Last Pick: Indianapolis (-7.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 19-16 Last Pick: Indianapolis/OKC over (232.5)
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