Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT
Location: FTX Arena (Miami, Florida)
Spread: Miami (-4)
Trends Against The Spread
|24-16 (60%)||16-23-3 (41%)|
|10-8 (55%) on the road||6-13-1 (31%) at home|
|19-9 (67%) as underdog or pick||9-17-2 (34%) as favorite|
|10-5 (66%) as road underdog||4-12-1 (25%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Trends Against The Total
- OKC has hit the over 59% of the time this season.
- The Heat have hit the over 45% of the time this season.
- The Thunder is 9-9 against the over on the road this season.
- Miami is 11-9 against the over at home this season.
The Thunder is 0-1 against the Heat so far this season (0-1 at home, 0-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+4)
A few reasons make me think OKC is a good cover as a 4-point underdog against the Heat in Miami on Tuesday night. First off, Miami is depleted due to injury. Jimmy Butler is playing, but Kyle Lowry (left knee discomfort) and Duncan Robinson (surgery on right 2nd finger) are both out, while Bam Adebayo (right wrist contusion) and Tyler Herro (sore left achilles) are both questionable. Add to the fact that the Thunder has played really well lately, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is making a strong case to be not just an All-Star, but a starter for the Western Conference, so it looks like OKC has a good shot at getting a win in Miami.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (224.5)
Miami has one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NBA, and they have a top-10 scoring defense as well. OKC is on the flip side of that, typically putting up a lot of points while giving up a decent amount. The first matchup between the two teams totaled just 218 points, but based on the trends of the last week or so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one break 225 with ease.
On the Season