Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored Against Short-Handed Heat

Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, Florida)

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Total: 235

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Heat
23-11-1 (67%)	All	17-18-1 (48%)
9-6-1 (60%) on the road	Location	6-10 (37%) at home
14-7 (66%) as favorite	Status	8-8 (50%) as underdog or pick
3-4 (42%) as road favorite	Location Status	0-3 (0%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 61% of the time this season.
• Miami has hit the over 47% of the time this season.
• The Thunder is 9-7 against the over on the road this season.
• The Heat are 10-6 against the over at home this season.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	122.2	114.6	50.4	39.7	40.7	26.9	12.7	8.3	6.5	W1	7-3
MIA	112.7	111.6	46.9	38.5	41.5	26.2	13.2	7.6	3.3	W1	6-4

Series History

This is the first meeting of the season between the Thunder and the Heat. The Thunder went 0-2 against the Heat last season (0-1 at home, 0-1 on the road). The Thunder has lost 6 straight to the Heat.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)

If everyone is healthy for both teams, I think OKC is the better squad, probably even on the road. Miami is missing Jimmy Butler, though, and without him, they’re just not the same team. Bam Adebayo could give Chet Holmgren fits in the paint, but it could also go the other way. I’m taking the Thunder to win and cover in this one.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (235)

Miami has one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league at 112.7 points per game, and they hold teams to just 111.6 points per game, but the Thunder has been both scoring and giving up plenty of points lately. While I do think OKC will be able to play better defense tonight than the last few games, I also think they will find ways to score against Miami, so I’m taking the over on this point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	19-16	20-14-1	10-25
Zack	24-11	21-13-1	16-19
Craig	21-8	15-13-1	11-18