Thunder Against the Spread | OKC a Heavy Favorite Against Mavs with Doncic Out Due to Injury

Tip-Off: 9 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-11)

Total: 235.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Mavericks
39-25-1 (60%)	All	36-30 (54%)
22-11 (66%) at home	Location	20-11 (64%) on the road
29-20 (59%) as favorite	Status	11-15 (42%) as underdog or pick
19-9 (67%) as home favorite	Location Status	6-8 (42%) as road underdog
1-1 (50%)	Head To Head	1-1 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 55% of the time this season.
• Dallas has hit the over 50% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 17-15-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Mavericks are 18-13 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	119.0	117.5	48.3	37.1	42.2	25.5	12.3	6.8	4.8	W4	5-5
OKC	120.7	113.0	49.9	39.4	41.8	26.9	12.4	8.2	6.7	L1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ousmane Dieng is OUT (G League – on assignment).
• Adam Flagler is OUT (G League — two-way).
• Keyontae Johnson is OUT (G League — two-way).
• Olivier Sarr is OUT (G League — two-way).

Mavericks

• Greg Brown III is OUT (G League — two-way).
• Luka Doncic is OUT (sore left hamstring).
• Alex Fudge is OUT (G League – two-way).
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper is OUT (G League — on assignment).
• Brandon Williams is OUT (sprained left wrist).

Series History

The Thunder are 1-1 against the Dallas Mavericks so far this season (0-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-11)

The betting line for this one opened up at OKC -6.5, but Luka Doncic made an early exit from Dallas’s win over the Golden State Warriors last night with a sore hamstring. Because it is the second game of a back-to-back, and because Luka will sit tonight, the line has swung all the way to -11. I can’t help but take Dallas to cover just because they are still competent, even without Doncic, but at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended in a blowout. Still, I’m taking the Mavs to keep it to within single digits.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (235.5)

The point total is also seeing the effects of the likelihood of Doncic not playing as it has dropped from 242 to 235.5. I think the Thunder get back on track offensively tonight, especially with the return of Jalen Williams to the starting lineup. As a result, there should be plenty of points on the board, so unless the Thunder blows Dallas out of the water, then I think the point total will go over.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	35-28	31-31-1	25-37
Zack	45-20	36-28-1	30-34
Craig	38-16	27-26-1	19-34