Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-16)
Total: 223.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Bucks |
| 44-35-1 (55%) | All | 34-45-1 (43%) |
| 25-14 (64%) at home | Location | 15-23-1 (39%) on the road |
| 33-26 (55%) as favorite | Status | 6-7 (46%) as underdog or pick |
| 21-12 (63%) as home favorite | Location Status | 3-6 (33%) as road underdog |
| 0-1 (0%) | Head To Head | 1-0 (100%) |
Trends Against The Total
- OKC has hit the over 56% of the time this season.
- Milwaukee has hit the over 49% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 20-18-1 against the over at home this season.
- The Bucks are 16-22-1 against the over on the road this season.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 119.5 | 116.3 | 48.8 | 37.4 | 44.3 | 26.7 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | W2 | 4-6 |
| OKC | 119.8 | 113.1 | 49.8 | 38.9 | 41.9 | 27.0 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 6.6 | W3 | 6-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ousmane Dieng is OUT (G League — on assignment).
- Adam Flagler is OUT (G League — two-way).
- Keyontae Johnson is OUT (G League — two-way).
- Olivier Sarr is OUT (G League — two-way).
- Lindy Waters III is QUESTIONABLE (G League — on assignment).
Bucks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is OUT (strained left soleus).
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo is PROBABLE (left hamstring soreness).
- MarJon Beauchamp is QUESTIONABLE (sprained left ankle).
- Jaylin Galloway is OUT (sprained right ankle).
- AJ Green is OUT (sprained left ankle).
- Damian Lillard is DOUBTFUL (left adductor soreness).
- Brook Lopez is QUESTIONABLE (rest).
- Khris Middleton is QUESTIONABLE (left ankle injury management).
- Bobby Portis is QUESTIONABLE (rest).
Series History
The Thunder are 0-1 against the Milwaukee Bucks so far this season (0-0 at home, 0-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-16)
I didn’t think the Thunder would cover against a depleted San Antonio squad on Wednesday, and I was about as wrong as a person could be. The Bucks are going to miss Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard at the least, and probably more, but they still have better pieces than the Spurs have by a lot. I do think OKC gets up by a lot early, but in looking to rest starters as much as possible, Milwaukee might be able to keep it close late, just barely covering the giant spread.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (223.5)
The only reason the over didn’t hit against the Spurs on Wednesday was because San Antonio couldn’t score for chunks of the game. Milwaukee should be able to do better than that, regardless of the final outcome, so I’m taking the over yet again.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 44-33 | 39-37-1 | 32-44 |
| Zack | 55-25 | 42-37-1 | 38-41 |
| Craig | 48-19 | 34-32-1 | 28-38 |
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