Thunder Against the Spread | Healthy OKC Massive Favorite Over Shorthanded Mavs

Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-19.5)

Total: 224.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Mavericks
45-35-1 (56%)	All	48-33 (59%)
26-14 (65%) at home	Location	27-13 (67%) on the road
34-26 (56%) as favorite	Status	14-15 (48%) as underdog or pick
22-12 (64%) as home favorite	Location Status	8-8 (50%) as road underdog
1-2 (33%)	Head To Head	2-1 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 57% of the time this season.
• Dallas has hit the over 45% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 21-18-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Mavericks are 21-19 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	118.2	115.4	48.3	37.1	43.0	25.8	12.5	6.9	5.0	L1	8-2
OKC	119.9	113.0	49.8	38.8	41.8	27.0	12.6	8.5	6.6	W4	6-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• NONE

Mavericks

• Greg Brown III is OUT (personal reasons).
• Luka Doncic is OUT (left ankle soreness).
• Dante Exum is OUT (sprained right foot).
• Daniel Gafford is OUT (right elbow soreness).
• Kyrie Irving is OUT (left hamstring soreness).
• Derrick Jones Jr. is OUT (sprained left shoulder).
• Maxi Kleber is OUT (lower back spasms).
• Derek Lively II is OUT (sprained right knee).
• P.J. Washington is OUT (sprained right ankle).

Series History

The Thunder are 2-1 against the Dallas Mavericks so far this season (1-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-19)

For the last two games, OKC has been a heavy favorite against a team missing key guys. Both times I expected the Thunder to get up early, then cool off, allowing the opponent to cover the spread. Both times I was gone. I’m not falling for it again. The Thunder are completely healthy and have a chance to get the #1 seed, while Dallas is locked in at 5th in the West. As a result, the Mavs are resting just about everybody, so I don’t their end of bench guys are going to be able to keep this one even relatively close. I’m taking OKC to close out the regular season strong by covering this giant spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (224.5)

I’m expecting a repeat of Friday night’s matchup with the Bucks where OKC pours it on early only for the second and third units to come in and keep that pace. Unless Dallas simply cannot put points on the scoreboard, I think this one will go just over the point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	45-33	39-38-1	32-45
Zack	56-25	42-38-1	39-42
Craig	49-19	35-32-1	29-38