Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored Over Mavs by Slightly More Than Game 1 Spread

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-5)

Total: 218.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Mavericks
50-36-1 (58%)	All	52-37 (58%)
29-15 (65%) at home	Location	29-16 (64%) on the road
39-27 (59%) as favorite	Status	15-17 (46%) as underdog or pick
25-13 (65%) as home favorite	Location Status	9-10 (47%) as home underdog
3-2 (60%)	Head To Head	2-3 (40%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
• Dallas has hit the over 45% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 22-21-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Mavericks are 22-23 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats (Playoffs only)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	105.3	102.7	45.4	33.6	41.9	20.9	12.1	6.9	6.6	L1	4-3
OKC	107.6	90.6	47.5	40.1	44.8	24.0	12.6	8.0	5.8	W5	5-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• NONE

Mavericks

• Luka Doncic is PROBABLE (sprained right knee).
• Maxi Kleber is OUT (sprained right shoulder).
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper is OUT (sprained left ankle).

Series History

The Thunder went 3-1 against the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season series (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

The Thunder are 1-0 against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals so far (1-0 at home, 0-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-5)

Do not let the result of Game 1 fool you: this series is not likely to be a blowout. The Mavericks have made it this far for a reason, and they are going to have made adjustments for this game, so expect a closer game. I do think OKC manages to cover the spread, but I think it’s just barely. It wouldn’t surprise me if the actual result come down to the last minute of the game, but I’m taking the Thunder to cover late.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (218.5)

OKC’s defense has been wildly successful through 5 playoff games so far with neither the Pelicans nor the Mavericks breaking triple digits. Dallas has a potent offense, and while they were somewhat off shooting the ball in Game 1, don’t be surprised if they rebound with a much better showing in Game 2. The Thunder are going to continue to move the ball well and find ways to get points on the board, so I’m expecting an over on the point total this time after missing it on Tuesday.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	51-33	44-39-1	34-48
Zack	62-25	47-39-1	40-47
Craig	52-19	37-33-1	30-40