Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT
Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)
Total: 217
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Mavericks |
| 50-37-1 (57%) | All | 53-37 (58%) |
| 21-21-1 (50%) on the road | Location | 23-21 (52%) at home |
| 11-9-1 (55%) as underdog | Status | 37-20 (64%) as favorite |
| 7-7-1 (50%) as road underdog | Location Status | 17-14 (54%) as home favorite |
| 3-3 (50%) | Head To Head | 3-3 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
- Dallas has hit the over 45% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 24-18-1 against the over on the road this season.
- The Mavericks are 18-26 against the over at home this season.
Team Stats (Playoffs only)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 107.0 | 103.6 | 45.6 | 35.6 | 42.1 | 22.0 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | W1 | 5-3 |
| OKC | 108.0 | 95.3 | 47.4 | 39.1 | 44.2 | 24.2 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 5.8 | L1 | 5-1 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- NONE
Mavericks
- Luka Doncic is QUESTIONABLE (sprained right knee, left ankle soreness).
- Maxi Kleber is OUT (sprained right shoulder).
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper is OUT (sprained left ankle).
Series History
The Thunder went 3-1 against the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season series (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).
The Thunder are 1-1 against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals so far (1-1 at home, 0-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+2.5)
The Mavericks knocked down 48.6% of their threes in the Game 2 win against the Thunder in OKC, which is their 7th best outing from downtown all season long. The Thunder managed just 33.3% from three, 5.5% lower than they knocked down in the regular season. While this isn’t the only stat from Game 2, it is the most obviously impactful one. I don’t think Dallas shoots that well again, and I don’t think OKC shoots that poorly again, so I’m taking the Thunder to regain home court advantage by stealing Game 3 on the road.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (217)
I expect a similar amount of scoring as Game 2, which ended with 229 combined points. OKC’s defense should clean up some areas and make some adjustments, but both offenses are capable of racking up points, so I feel comfortable about another over on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 51-34 | 44-40-1 | 34-49 |
| Zack | 62-26 | 47-40-1 | 41-47 |
| Craig | 52-20 | 37-34-1 | 30-41 |
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