Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Just a 1-Point Underdog for Game 4 in Dallas

Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)

Spread: Mavericks (-1)

Total: 214.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Mavericks
50-38-1 (56%)	All	54-37 (59%)
21-22-1 (48%) on the road	Location	24-21 (53%) at home
11-10-1 (52%) as underdog	Status	38-20 (65%) as favorite
7-8-1 (46%) as road underdog	Location Status	18-14 (56%) as home favorite
3-4 (42%)	Head To Head	4-3 (57%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
• Dallas has hit the over 45% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 24-19-1 against the over on the road this season.
• The Mavericks are 18-27 against the over at home this season.

Team Stats (Playoffs only)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	106.8	103.4	45.3	35.4	42.8	21.9	12.1	7.0	6.0	W2	6-3
OKC	107.0	96.7	47.4	38.4	43.7	24.0	12.4	7.4	6.6	L2	5-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• NONE

Mavericks

• Luka Doncic is QUESTIONABLE (sprained right knee, left ankle soreness).
• Maxi Kleber is OUT (sprained right shoulder).
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper is OUT (sprained left ankle).

Series History

The Thunder went 3-1 against the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season series (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

The Thunder are 1-2 against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals so far (1-1 at home, 0-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+1)

For two games losses, OKC has shot well below what is their normal, and they still have managed to keep the games close. All it takes is a little bit of correction to the norm, and the Thunder are all tied up and heading back home having reclaimed home court advantage. Speaking of correction to the norm, PJ Washington is shooting well above his average from three, and it’s reasonable to assume that he could have an off game tonight. I would expect OKC’s adjustments to make all the difference tonight, giving the Thunder the win.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (214.5)

The playoffs as a whole haven’t featured a lot of high-scoring games, somewhat due to the way officials are calling games, but also due to defenses playing at a higher level. OKC can definitely make adjustments defensively, primarily when it comes to keeping Dallas from getting offensive rebounds, but I anticipate the Thunder to knock down more shots, which will result in a higher final score than we saw in Game 3.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	52-34	45-40-1	34-49
Zack	62-27	47-41-1	41-48
Craig	52-21	37-35-1	30-42