Tip-Off: 9 PM CT
Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
Total: 232.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Nuggets |
| 59-30 (66%) | All | 42-47-2 (47%) |
| 26-17 (60%) on the road | Location | 20-24-1 (45%) at home |
| 57-29 (66%) as favorite | Status | 14-12-1 (53%) as underdog |
| 24-16 (60%) as road favorite | Location Status | 3-3 (50%) as road underdog |
| 3-3 (50%) | Head To Head | 3-3 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 48-40-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Denver is 54-37 (58%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 21-21-1 (50%) against the over on the road.
- The Nuggets are 28-17 (62%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 124.7 | 104.9 | 46.7 | 33.9 | 45.3 | 26.8 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 7.7 | W1 | 5-1 |
| DEN | 109.0 | 114.0 | 46.6 | 38.2 | 44.9 | 23.1 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | L1 | 4-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Nuggets
- DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
Series History
OKC is tied with Denver 1-1 in the Western Conference Semifinals (0-1 at home, 0-0 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-5.5)
OKC bounced back in Game 2 with a dominating performance over the Nuggets, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen tonight in Game 3. I do expect the Thunder to come in with a lot of momentum and energy, but Denver will most assuredly have made some adjustments before playing in front of the home crowd. OKC knows the importance of taking at least one game on the road, and it would do them well to get ahead instead of falling behind. This game will be much closer than Wednesday’s outing, but the Thunder will emerge victorious, covering the spread, even if just barely.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (232.5)
The first two games of the series have gone over the point total with ease, but I think tonight is the night that both defenses do their best to lock in. I still think Denver’s defense is more like Swiss cheese than a force to be reckoned with, but OKC played Game 2 with the grit and determination that helped them to such a successful season. I think that carries into tonight, keeping the point total a little lower for the first time this series.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 66-20 | 54-31-1 | 40-46-1 |
| Zack | 73-16 | 62-27 | 45-44 |
| Craig | 70-17 | 62-23-2 | 44-42-1 |
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