Thunder Against the Spread | Take OKC to Cover at Home Against Warriors

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 227.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thundervs.Warriors
6-5 (54%)All6-5 (54%)
2-2 (50%) at homeLocation1-5 (16%) on the road
6-5 (54%) as favoriteStatus1-2 (33%) as underdog
2-2 (50%) as home favoriteLocation Status0-2 (0%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)Head To Head0-0 (0%)
  • Oklahoma City is 6-5 (54%) against the over on the season.
  • Golden State is 6-5 (54%) against the over on the season.
  • The Thunder is 3-1 (75%) against the over at home.
  • The Warriors are 4-2 (66%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
GSW115.9113.646.037.042.927.716.18.94.5W15-5
OKC122.4108.847.133.248.124.911.710.55.4W24-6

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Luguentz Dort (strained right upper trap) is OUT.
  • Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
  • Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
  • Aaron Wiggins (strained left adductor) is OUT.
  • Jalen Williams (right wrist surgical recovery) is OUT.
  • Kenrich Williams (left knee surgical recovery) is OUT.

Warriors

  • Al Horford (left toe injury management) is OUT.
  • De’Anthony Melton (left ACL surgery) is OUT.

Series History

OKC went 1-2 against the Warriors in the 2024-25 regular season (0-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-7.5)

The Warriors were supposed to be a legit contender in the West, but they have looked average so far. They are undefeated at home (5-0), but they have struggled on the road (1-5), with their only win coming against the Los Angeles Lakers in their first game of the season. I think OKC wins, and regardless of how close this one may be early, I see the Thunder pulling away before the end of the game, effectively covering the spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (227.5)

The Thunder allow the fewest points in the league, and the Warriors are pretty solid at 9th. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one surpass the total. Golden State is still a solid three-point shooting team, and OKC has the best numbers when it comes to scoring and defense in the paint. I think this one clears the number, even if it is late in the game.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt9-24-73-8
Zack10-16-56-5
Craig10-14-72-9

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