Thunder Against the Spread | Down a Few Guys, OKC is Still Heavy Favored Ahead of Meeting with Bucks

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Total: 226.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Bucks
22-22 (50%)	All	19-23 (45%)
10-11 (47%) on the road	Location	8-11 (42%) at home
22-22 (50%) as favorite	Status	12-11 (52%) as underdog
10-11 (47%) as road favorite	Location Status	4-5 (44%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 23-21 (52%) against the over on the season.
• Milwaukee is 16-26 (38%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 11-10 (52%) against the over on the road.
• The Bucks are 9-10 (47%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	121.4	108.0	49.1	36.2	43.8	25.8	12.3	10.1	5.9	W1	7-3
MIL	112.4	115.6	48.3	39.4	40.4	26.2	14.8	7.8	4.1	W1	5-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained right adductor) is OUT
• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained left soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Jaylin Williams (left glut contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.

Bucks

• Alex Antetokounmpo (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Kevin Porter Jr. (strained oblique muscle) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Taurean Prince (neck surgery) is OUT.
• Myles Turner (sprained left ankle) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9.5)

OKC’s injury report has grown since the Thunder last played, but they will still have the better lineup as they take the floor in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been pretty bad this year, and it’s not for lack of trying from Giannis Antetokounmpo. As good as the Greek Freak has been, the Thunder’s defense should focus on slowing down Milwaukee’s three-point shooting. At 39.4%, the Bucks are the 2nd-best in the NBA from beyond the arc. A crazy shooting night seems like the only thing that will keep Milwaukee in this one, which I don’t see happening, so I’m taking the Thunder to win by double digits and cover the spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (226.5)

While I do think OKC has another solid defensive outing as they take on the Bucks, I think the point total goes over because Milwaukee’s defense just isn’t that great outside of Giannis. This very well could be another blowout victory for the Thunder, and because of that, I’m seeing a lot of points.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	36-8	21-23	20-24
Zack	36-8	23-21	22-22
Craig	36-8	16-27-1	15-29