Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to Bounce Back As a Double-Digit Home Favorite Against Raptors

Tip-Off: 6 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Total: 224.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Raptors
23-23 (50%)	All	23-23-1 (50%)
12-12 (50%) at home	Location	14-9-1 (60%) on the road
23-23 (50%) as favorite	Status	12-8 (60%) as underdog
12-12 (50%) as home favorite	Location Status	9-4 (69%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 25-21 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Toronto is 19-28 (40%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 13-11 (54%) against the over at home.
• The Raptors are 9-15 (37%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
TOR	114.3	112.2	47.3	34.3	43.1	29.6	13.9	8.4	4.6	W3	6-4
OKC	121.3	108.0	49.3	36.1	43.7	25.5	12.2	10.0	5.9	L1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained right adductor) is OUT
• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Aaron Wiggins (right hip impingement) is AVAILABLE.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Raptors

• Chucky Hepburn (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Collin Murray-Boyles (left thumb contusion) is OUT.
• Jakob Poeltl (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Immanuel Quickley (right ankle soreness) is AVAILABLE.
• Ja’Kobe Walter (right hip pointer) is AVAILABLE.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-11.5)

Dropping a game at home to the Indiana Pacers might be about as low as it gets for the Thunder’s season, even when dealing with injuries and just returning home from a long road trip. OKC does a great job at bouncing back after a loss, though, and I just don’t see them losing back-to-back at home. This should be a methodical win, slowly growing the lead in the first half, before delivering a heavy blow in the third quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have another nice game, Chet Holmgren will keep rolling as he has been, and SOMEBODY else will actually hit some shots for OKC.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (226.5)

Toronto’s offense is below average in points per game, but the Raptors’ defense is pretty solid. I do think this is a defensive battle for most of the game, with OKC pulling ahead slowly early, but in the end, it’s going to be below this point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	37-9	21-25	20-26
Zack	37-9	24-22	22-24
Craig	37-9	16-29-1	17-29