Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Given Edge over Nuggets Ahead of Matchup in Denver

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 224.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Nuggets
23-26 (46%)	All	29-20 (59%)
11-12 (47%) on the road	Location	12-11 (52%) at home
23-26 (46%) as favorite	Status	11-5 (68%) as underdog
11-12 (47%) as road favorite	Location Status	4-4 (50%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 26-23 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 29-19-1 (60%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 13-10 (56%) against the over on the road.
• The Nuggets are 13-9-1 (59%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	120.3	108.0	49.0	35.8	43.6	25.5	12.3	9.8	5.9	L1	6-4
DEN	120.1	115.6	49.6	39.8	42.5	28.0	12.5	6.8	4.1	W2	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained right adductor) is OUT
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Nuggets

• Tamar Bates (left foot surgery) is OUT.
• Christian Braun (sprained left ankle) is DOUBTFUL.
• Aaron Gordon (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Cameron Johnson (right knee bone bruise) is OUT.
• Nikola Joic (left knee bone bruise) is PROBABLE.
• Curtis Jones (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Jamal Murray (right hamstring and left hip inflammation) is PROBABLE.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-7.5)

I managed to lock in the line at OKC -4.5, which I was much more comfortable with than the current -7.5. OKC is still missing some key pieces, but the Nuggets are also lacking in several areas. Nikola Jokic obviously does a lot for Denver, regardless of who is on the floor, but they don’t have a guy who can guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Isaiah Hartenstein should be back in the starting line-up, and Chet Holmgren will benefit from that. OKC does need to slow down Denver’s three-point shooting, but if the Thunder can do that, they could open this one up big.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (224.5)

The point total was 4 points higher last night, and I felt pretty good about it, so I feel REALLY good about it now. The top two offenses should be able to score plenty to go over this line, even if OKC’s defense is the best in the league. The Thunder has struggled at times to stop teams lately, and they haven’t been able to slow teams down from shooting well from downtown all season long. While I do think OKC wins, I do think this game could be pretty high scoring.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	38-11	23-26	22-27
Zack	38-11	25-24	24-25
Craig	38-11	16-32-1	18-31