Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored At Home Over Orland Despite Lengthy Injury Report

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 219.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Magic
24-26 (48%)	All	19-29 (39%)
12-14 (46%) at home	Location	9-16 (36%) on the road
24-26 (48%) as favorite	Status	6-8 (42%) as underdog
12-14 (46%) as home favorite	Location Status	4-6 (40%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 27-23 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Orlando is 24-24 (50%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 13-13 (50%) against the over at home.
• The Magic are 13-12 (52%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
ORL	115.5	115.6	46.4	34.3	43.8	26.3	13.9	8.3	5.0	L1	4-6
OKC	120.3	108.0	48.9	35.9	43.5	25.4	12.3	9.9	5.9	W1	6-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained right adductor) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (sprained right index finger) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (right soleus injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Chet Holmgren (low back spasms) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Jaylin Williams (left shoulder contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.

Magic

• Colin Castleton (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Franz Wagner ( left high ankle sprain injury management) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-7.5)

This line worries because of all the questions surrounding the injury report. If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays, I feel better about it, and if either one of Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein plays, I feel MUCH better about it. Realistically, they could all sit, and the Thunder could be looking at heavy minutes for guys like Branden Carlson and Brooks Barnhizer. I like OKC’s depth enough to see them win the game, but covering the spread could be a tall task, so I’m taking Orlando to cover.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (219.5)

If OKC is missing even more guys than normal, the defense could take a hit. That turns this into more of an offensive game, and with a low point total like this, I have a hard time believing both the Thunder and the Magic will score below their season averages. I’m taking the over.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	38-12	23-27	23-27
Zack	39-11	26-24	25-25
Craig	39-11	16-33-1	19-31