Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Hosts Nuggets as Heavy Favorite with SGA’s Return

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

Total: 233.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Nuggets
31-29 (51%)	All	33-26 (55%)
15-16 (48%) at home	Location	20-12 (62%) on the road
28-28 (50%) as favorite	Status	12-7 (63%) as underdog
14-16 (46%) as home favorite	Location Status	8-2 (80%) as road underdog
1-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-1 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 34-26 (56%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 36-22-1 (62%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 15-16 (48%) against the over at home.
• The Nuggets are 22-10 (68%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DEN	120.5	115.7	49.4	39.3	43.2	28.2	12.9	7.0	4.1	W1	4-6
OKC	119.4	108.0	48.4	36.5	43.7	25.6	12.8	9.8	5.6	L1	6-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (strained abdominal) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Nuggets

• Tamar Bates (left foot surgery) is OUT.
• Aaron Gordon (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Curtis Jones (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Spencer Jones (strained right shoulder) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jamal Murray (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Jalen Pickett (right knee soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Julian Strawther (sprained left great toe) is PROBABLE.
• Peyton Watson (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-8.5)

The return of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is pretty big for the Thunder right now, considering their lead in the Western Conference standings is just 1.5 games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs. After being an underdog for three consecutive games, this point spread feels like a massive swing considering the opponent, but that goes to show just how highly Vegas thinks of a near-healthy Thunder squad. I like OKC to cover because SGA is the only guy (that isn’t still out) that has missed more than a game or two, and he’s not one to ever really struggle with rust. Add to it that Denver has its share of bumps and bruises, and the Thunder should get a nice, convincing win.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (233.5)

Two of the league’s top-scoring offenses are likely to put up a ton of points, and this point total isn’t all that crazy. That’s likely influenced by OKC’s top-ranked defense. Still, Denver has a pretty mediocre to bad defense, and because I do expect the Thunder to cover the spread, I’m going to go ahead and take the over on the point total as well. OKC is going to get some stops, but the Nuggets are going to score plenty.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	45-14	27-32	25-34
Zack	46-14	31-29	29-31
Craig	45-14	21-37-1	23-36