Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored by Double-Digits Over Lakers in Game 4 for Potential Series Clincher

Tip-Off: 9:30 PM CT

Location: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles, California)

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Total: 214.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Lakers
44-45 (49%)	All	50-41 (54%)
22-21 (51%) on the road	Location	27-18 (60%) on the road
41-43 (48%) as favorite	Status	20-22 (47%) as underdog
20-19 (51%) as road favorite	Location Status	9-9 (50%) as home underdog
7-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-7 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 50-39 (56%) against the over on the season.
• Los Angeles is 46-45 (50%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 26-17 (60%) against the over on the road.
• The Lakers are 23-22 (51%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	122.1	103.8	50.9	38.7	42.1	26.9	11.9	10.0	5.4	W7	7-0
LAL	101.3	106.2	46.9	38.8	39.7	24.4	18.0	7.3	5.0	L3	4-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained left hamstring) is OUT.

Lakers

• Luka Doncic (strained left hamstring) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)

OKC has covered the spread against the Lakers easily in each game in this series (and all season), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to have a truly great game. With the opportunity to sweep and clinch the series, I like the Thunder’s chances of winning by way of a massive blowout. Los Angeles has done a great job at making life difficult for SGA, which makes it harder on OKC as a whole. However, the younger, fresher legs are turning tight games into runaway wins, and LeBron James—as spectacular as he has been—is wearing down. Don’t be surprised if the Thunder covers and finally sends the Lakers to their summer vacation destinations.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (214.5)

After a defense-heavy Game 1, the last two games in this series have featured more offense, particularly from OKC. While I still see the Thunder scoring pretty easily tonight, I think OKC’s defense steps up in a series-clinching type of way, resulting in a lower score than expected. I like the point total to go under, but probably just barely.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	71-17	39-49	35-53
Zack	73-16	47-42	45-44
Craig	71-17	33-54-1	35-53