Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Slightly Favored in First Night of Back-to-Back with Blazers

Tip-Off: 10 PM CT

Location: Moda Center (Portland, Oregon)

Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

Total: 225.5

Trends Against The Spread

ThunderatBlazers
7-3 (70%)All5-4 (55%)
3-2 (60%) on the roadLocation1-2 (33%) at home
6-2 (75%) at homeStatus2-2 (50%) as underdog
2-1 (66%) as road favoriteLocation Status0-1 (0%) as home underdog
0-0 (0%)Head-to-Head0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

  • Oklahoma City is 3-7 (30%) against the over for the season.
  • Portland is 4-5 (44%) against the over for the season.
  • The Thunder are 1-4 (20%) against the over on the road.
  • The Blazers are 0-3 (0%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
OKC112.2104.245.734.947.323.113.28.15.9W48-2
POR119.3113.847.335.645.226.216.97.34.8L:26-3

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Chet Holmgren (right knee patellar tendinitis) is OUT.
  • Thomas Sorber (right knee surgery) is OUT.
  • Nikola Topic (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
  • Cason Wallace (left shoulder labral tear) is OUT.
  • Jalen Williams (left ankle fracture) is OUT.
  • Jaylin Williams (lower back spasms) is OUT.

Blazers

  • Vit Krejci (fractured left ankle) is OUT.
  • Ja Morant (strained left hamstring) is OUT.
  • Shaedon Sharpe (right meniscus surgery) is OUT.
  • John Tonje (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-1.5)

The Blazers have had extreme outcomes in each of their three home games: 2 blowout losses (Grizzlies, Spurs) by at least 21 points and a 41-point win in their opener against the Phoenix Suns. Despite being in the top half of the league in 3-point percentage (35.6%), they have made just 30.5% of their attempts from downtown at home. To be fair, they’ve been on the road a lot, but they rely on their offense to win games. OKC was the NBA’s top defensive team last week, and I think they can carry at least some of that momentum into this one. I think the Thunder open up this West Coast road trip and first night of a back-to-back against the Blazers with a solid win.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (225.5)

Portland’s offense is one of the highest-scoring in the league at 119.3 points per game, but OKC’s defense is holding opponents to just 104.2 points per game, 2nd best in the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been pretty spectacular, and so has his supporting cast, but I expect the Thunder to win by limiting the Blazers, not by outscoring them. As a result, I like the under on this point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt6-43-75-5
Zack8-26-45-5
Craig7-35-54-6

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