Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
Grizzlies/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|22-17-1 (56%)||24-19 (55%)|
|9-7 (56%) on the road||9-11 (45%) at home|
|10-7-1 (58%) as a favorite||22-19 (53%) as an underdog or pick|
|3-2 (60%) as a road favorite||8-11 (42%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Grizzlies/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 20-22-1 against the over this season.
Memphis is 17-22-1 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 60% of the time at home.
The Grizzlies are hitting the over 53% of the time on the road.
Oklahoma City will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight which is a massive loss. SGA scored a team-high 22 points against Memphis on February 17 and then posted a game-high 30 points when the Thunder played the Grizzles for the second time on March 14th.
Mike Muscala was second on the team in scoring in that first meeting. His 5-for-9 performance from three-point range helped him post 21 points on the night. Aleksej Pokusevski had a career-high 23 points in the second meeting.
Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen each scored 22 points for Memphis in the first matchup but the Grizzlies were led by Ja Morant’s 22 points the second time around.
Game 1 | Grizzlies 122 – Thunder 113 (Memphis was a 7-point favorite)
Game 2 | Thunder 128 – Grizzlies 122 (Memphis was a 9.5-point favorite)
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+6.5)
Oklahoma City is back at home where they’re only covering the spread 45% of the time this season. As a home underdog that number decreases to 42% and when facing teams that have won 45-55% of its games the Thunder are only covering the spread 41% of the time.
Meanwhile Memphis is a strong road team. The Grizzlies are covering the spread 56% of the time this season and are at an equal 56% on the road. More specifically as a road favorite, Memphis is covering the spread 60% of the time and when facing a team that has won less than 45% of its games they’re also covering the spread 60% of the time.
Those trends are pretty strong on their own but in the absence of SGA you can’t help but think Memphis has a strong advantage in this one.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (218.5)
I’ve been tanking at the over/under recently, especially when Zack picks opposite of me, but I like the under here. In addition to the SGA factor there’s both teams are below 50% on the season against the over. When the total is greater than 205 the Thunder are hitting the over 47% of the time and the Grizzlies just 43% of the time. When playing after an off day both teams are just 40% against the over.
On The Season
At least while I’ve been struggling against the over/under I’ve been hitting the spread which is keeping me from totally tanking.
Against the Spread: 6-13 Last Pick: OKC (+4) at Minnesota
Over/Under: 12-7 Last Pick: OKC/Minnesota over (230.5)
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