Tip-Off: 8:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Wizards (-9.5)
Wizards/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|31-27 (53%)||28-31 (47%)|
|16-12 (57%) on the road||10-19 (34%) at home|
|6-9 (40%) as a favorite||26-31 (45%) as an underdog or pick|
|2-2 (50%) as a road favorite||9-19 (32%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (0%)|
Wizards/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 28-30-1 against the over this season.
Washington is 26-31-1 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 62% of the time at home.
The Wizards are hitting the over 39% of the time on the road.
Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal were more than the Thunder could handle four days ago in the nation’s capital. Beal scored a game-high 30 points while Westbrook produced a triple-double with 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 17 assists. There’s no reason not to expect the duo to produce similar numbers again tonight. What was unexpected though was the 21 points Davis Bertans scored off the bench. That could end up being the primary factor against the spread tonight.
I’m sticking with Moses Brown as one of my guys to watch against Washington tonight. He’s coming off a 12 point/11 rebound performance against the Pacers but has something to prove against the Wizards after being shutout against them just a few nights ago.
Kenrich Williams played thirty five minutes against the Wizards in the first meeting and could be on pace for another solid night tonight. He posted 15 points and 7 boards in the first meeting.
The Thunder didn’t have access to Lu Dort in the first meeting but he’s active tonight and my bet is that he leads OKC in scoring.
Game 1 | Washington 119 – OKC 107
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+9.5)
This line was a bit crazy the last time out because news broke late that Lu Dort wasn’t playing and it pushed the spread up. However, we were able to lock the Wizards at 10.5 early on and held on for the cover. I know that Dort should make more than a one-point difference but OKC is only covering the spread 32% of the time as a home underdog and the Wizards are covering 57% of the time on the road. I’ll take Washington by at least 10 points here.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (230.5)
The best supporting stat for this game going over is that OKC hits the over 62% of the time at home. While that’s a strong percentage, just about everything else about this game points to the under. When the total is between 230 and 233 points the Thunder are hitting the over just 20% of the time. Following a day off OKC hits the over 43% of the time and Washington is worse at 39% of the time.
The previous game between these two failed to hit the over.
On The Season
I totally whiffed on the Pacers pick, missing out on both the spread and over/under picks. Not good. Not good at all.
Against the Spread: 12-18 Last Pick: Indiana (-10.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 17-12 Last Pick: OKC/Indiana under (230.5)
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