Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
Thunder/76ers Trends Against The Spread
|28-32 (46%)||30-28-2 (51%)|
|18-12 (60%) on the road||16-13 (55%) at home|
|26-32 (44%) as an underdog or pick||24-20-1 (54%) as a favorite|
|17-12 (58%) as a road dog||12-12 (50%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (0%)|
Thunder/76ers Trends Against The Total
OKC is 29-30-1 against the over this season.
Philadelphia is 28-32 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 34% of the time on the road.
The 76ers are hitting the over 58% of the time at home.
Philadelphia’s top three players are all listed as game time decisions tonight but if he’s able to go I really like Tobias Harris to have a solid night. He didn’t play in the first meeting between the two due to a sore right knee but if he takes the floor tonight I would absolutely expect to see him produce.
Then there’s Joel Embiid who OKC just doesn’t have an answer for. In the first game against OKC Embiid scored 27 points and pulled down 9 rebounds. Again, he’s listed as a game time decision but if he is good to go then there’s no reason to to expect similar numbers.
With Lu Dort back on the shelf for OKC tonight the attention turns to Darius Bazley as the primary threat for the Thunder. Bazley had a near double-double performance when Oklahoma City played Philadelphia on April 10th, posting 17 points and pulling down 9 rebounds. He also dished out 5 assists that night.
Game 1 | Philadelphia 117 – Oklahoma City 93
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+11.5)
While we don’t know for sure who is available for the 76ers yet we do know that Dort in out for the Thunder tonight. If Philly plays its typical lineup then this could get ugly. If they rest players then it should be pretty interesting. Regardless, we all know that OKC doesn’t want to even sniff a win right now.
The key factor you’re looking for here, as far as trends are concerned, is 57%. Philadelphia covers the spread 57% of the time following a day off (OKC only 45% of the time) and the 76ers cover 57% of the time when playing a team that has won less than 45% of its games.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (219.5)
I feel like this is just free money here which means that it is probably a trap. Yes, there’s the chance that Philly won’t play all of its stars tonight, and yes Dort is out for OKC but the lack of defense recently for the Thunder has caused them to swing heavily towards the over recently.
Both teams are under 50% against the over this season but the 76ers are hitting it 58% of the time at home and the Thunder have gone over two times in a row now with the point total being at 231 and 232.5. The total tonight is significantly less than that and despite all of the trends saying that this game should go under, I just can’t head that direction. Give me the over on this one.
On The Season
I was able to sneak in an against the spread pick for the Washington game because I got the Wizards at -9.5. That pulls me another game closer to .500 on the season against the spread.
Against the Spread: 13-18 Last Pick: Washington (-9.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 18-13 Last Pick: Washington/OKC under (230.5)
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