Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: TD Garden (Boston, Massachusetts)
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)
Thunder/Celtics Trends Against The Spread
|28-33 (45%)||29-31-1 (48%)|
|18-13 (58%) on the road||17-13 (56%) at home|
|26-33 (44%) as an underdog or pick||17-21-1 (44%) as a favorite|
|17-13 (56%) as a road dog||13-10 (56%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Celtics Trends Against The Total
OKC is 29-31-1 against the over this season.
Boston is 30-31 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 33% of the time on the road.
The Celtics are hitting the over 40% of the time at home.
Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are out for Boston tonight. Tatum scored 27 points to lead all scorers when the two teams met a month ago. That’s going to leave small forward Jalen Brown as the top scoring option for the Celtics tonight. He also had a very solid outing against Oklahoma City last month with a 25-point performance.
Marcus Smart is also a threat for tonight. He only scored 8 points in 38 minutes on the floor but the Celtics were +20 with him in the game. I would be shocked if he only had 8 points tonight.
Lu Dort should return to the floor tonight and will provide for a good defensive matchup against Jaylen Brown. Look for him and Darius Bazley to be on the high end of OKC’s box score. Bazley didn’t play against the Celtics last month but 10 did and scored 10 points. Point guard Theo Maledon led all Thunder players with 22 points in that game.
Game 1 | Boston 111 – Oklahoma City 94
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+10.5)
Neither team is particularly good against the spread this season but this is the second night of a back-to-back for OKC and that means the struggle is even more intensified. The Thunder are only covering the spread 46% of the time in the second night of a back-to-back this season and Boston is playing after a day off where they cover 52% of the time in situations like this.
Those are high percentages for the Celtics but considering that they’ve already covered once this season without Kemba Walker in the lineup I don’t see why they can’t do it again tonight. Boston is 2-0 against the spread this season when favored by 10-13 points.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (215.5)
I feel like this is going to be a slow-paced defensive game tonight and the trends seem to back that up. Neither team is hitting the over more than 50% of the time and Oklahoma City is down to just doing so 33% of the time on the road this season. When the line is between 213.5 and 216.5 Boston is only hitting the over 28% of the time.
The only positive trend towards the over tonight is that the Thunder are hitting it 64% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back. Out of nine trends I look at for both teams that is literally the only one to be positive towards the over. That’s just not enough for me to commit. I’ll take the under tonight.
On The Season
I got another step closer to .500 on my against the spread picks last night by taking Philly and the points. Starting to get a bit worried about that over/under record though.
Against the Spread: 14-18 Last Pick: Philadelphia (-11.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 18-14 Last Pick: Philadelphia/OKC over (219.5)
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