Tip-Off: 9:00 PM CT
Location: Golden 1 Center (Sacramento, California)
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)
Thunder/Kings Trends Against The Spread
|31-38 (44%)||30-37-1 (44%)|
|19-16 (54%) on the road||12-22 (35%) at home|
|29-38 (43%) as an underdog or pick||7-16 (30%) as a favorite|
|18-16 (56%) as a road underdog||7-16 (30%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Thunder/Warriors Trends Against The Total
OKC is 33-34-2 against the over this season.
Sacramento is 33-32-3 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 36% of the time on the road.
The Kings are hitting the over 60% of the time at home.
All five of Sacramento’s starters scored in double figures against the Thunder just two nights ago. Maurice Harkless led the way for the Kings with 18 points and 4 boards. He’s a good place to start tonight in terms of looking for key contributors. Former Oklahoma standout Buddy Hield is listed as a game time decision so my next guy to keep an eye on is Delon Wright who scored 15 points, grabbed 7 boards and dished out 5 assists against the Thunder on Sunday.
Theo Maledon is for sure out for OKC tonight, Ty Jerome and Lu Dort are listed as game time decisions. That’s going to point me towards Darius Bazley and Moses Brown as the players to watch for Oklahoma City. I feel like Brown has the best matchup advantage for the Thunder but Bazley is going to get the most shot volume. In Sunday’s game Bazley led the way for OKC with 18 points and Brown produced 12 points and 8 boards.
Game 1 | Sacramento 103 – Oklahoma City 98
Game 2 | Sacramento 126 – Oklahoma City 99
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+10.5)
Once again this comes down to simple semantics. Just like the Golden State Warriors set last week, OKC is coming off a blowout loss and has to take the court again, on the road, against the same team. There’s nothing here to lead someone to believe the Thunder can cover. OKC could have Dort back in the lineup tonight but they are without point guard Theo Maledon. Is that enough to make up 17 points from Sunday’s performance? I don’t believe that it is.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (223.5)
The Kings and the Thunder have yet to hit the over against each other this season. Oklahoma City has yet to score 100 points against Sacramento this season. This game definitely trends towards the under and I’m fully on board with that. OKC only hits the over 36% of the time on the road this season and the Kings are hitting it just 50% of the time following a day off. The under is definitely the safest play here.
On The Season
Once again my travel schedule prevented me from posting on Sunday night’s game but I did decent on my last time out with picks against the Warriors.
Against the Spread: 17-21 Last Pick: Golden State (-14.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 21-17 Last Pick: Golden State/OKC over (223.5)
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