Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to Extend Winning Streak as Heavy Home Favorite Over Mavs

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-15)

Total: 229.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Mavericks
11-11 (50%)	All	11-12 (47%)
5-5 (50%) at home	Location	5-4 (55%) on the road
11-11 (50%) as favorite	Status	10-7 (58%) as underdog
5-5 (50%) as home favorite	Location Status	4-4 (50%) as road underdog
0-1 (0%)	Head To Head	1-0 (100%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 12-10 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Dallas is 8-15 (34%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 5-5 (50%) against the over at home.
• The Mavericks are 3-6 (33%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	111.4	115.7	45.2	33.6	44.9	24.7	15.8	8.2	6.0	W3	5-5
OKC	122.3	107.0	49.1	36.6	44.8	26.1	12.8	10.3	5.5	W13	10-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Brooks Barnhizer (G League — two-way) is PROBABLE.
• Branden Carlson (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
• Alex Caruso (right quad soreness) is OUT.
• Luguentz Dort (strained right adductor) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained right soleus) is OUT.
• Isaiah Joe (left knee soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Chris Youngblood (G League — two-way) is PROBABLE.

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (right knee injury management) is OUT.
• Cooper Flagg (right thumb splint) is AVAILABLE.
• Daniel Gafford (right ankle injury management) is OUT.
• Kyrie Irving (left knee surgery) is OUT.
• Dereck Lively II (right foot injury management) is OUT.
• P.J. Washington (sprained right ankle) is OUT.

Series History

OKC is 1-0 against Dallas so far this season (0-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-15)

OKC feels like an unstoppable force. Even when it feels like an opposing team has a chance, the Thunder down the stretch is inevitable. The Mavericks, on the other hand, continue to improve as Anthony Davis stays healthy and Cooper Flagg settles into his role, but they’re still a struggling squad. Their 3-game win streak ends tonight, but I don’t think it will quite be a blowout as the spread suggests, so I’m taking Dallas to cover, even if it is on a couple of late baskets.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (229.5)

The Thunder’s defense is the driving force behind all of their success, but the offense is also one of the best in the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s top efficiency scorer, and Jalen Williams is already settling back into his role as the second option. Add Chet Holmgren to the mix amongst a long list of role players who can step up on any given night. Dallas, on the other hand, is below average in both scoring and scoring defense. Still, I think the Mavs keep the score close enough, which, as a result, will push the point total over the given number.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	20-2	13-8	7-15
Zack	21-1	11-11	10-12
Craig	21-1	10-11-1	7-15