Thunder Against the Spread | Near Full Strength, OKC is Heavily Favored at Home Against the Heat

Tip-Off: 6 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

Total: 233.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Heat
19-20 (48%)	All	20-16-2 (55%)
11-10 (52%) at home	Location	9-8-2 (52%) on the road
19-20 (48%) as favorite	Status	11-7-2 (61%) as underdog
11-10 (52%) as home favorite	Location Status	7-6-2 (53%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 20-19 (51%) against the over on the season.
• Miami is 18-20 (58%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 11-10 (52%) against the over at home.
• The Heat are 9-10 (47%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
MIA	119.6	117.6	46.7	36.5	45.8	28.4	14.5	9.3	4.5	L2	5-5
OKC	121.3	108.3	48.8	35.7	43.9	25.7	12.3	10.4	5.6	W2	6-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Isaiah Hartenstein (strained left soleus) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.

Heat

• Vladislav Goldin (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Tyler Herro (right big toe contusion and rib contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Terry Rozier (not with team) is OUT.
• Jahmir Young (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-14.5)

After missing a good chunk of the team on Friday in Memphis, almost everyone is off the injury report for this matchup with the Heat. I expect that the extra rest will do a lot of good towards the upcoming schedule, starting with tonight against a Miami squad that just played last night in Indiana. Sure, the Heat got killed, so starters didn’t play much late, but having to play, combined with travel, will likely have an impact on fatigue. I’m taking OKC to cover big in front of the home crowd.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (233.5)

OKC still has the best defense in the league, and even though Miami has a balanced scoring system of players, I just don’t see this one quite going over the point total. A healthy defense should be able to lock in against a fatigued offense.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	32-7	20-19	17-22
Zack	32-7	21-18	19-20
Craig	32-7	13-25-1	13-26