Thunder Against the Spread | OKC is a Narrow Favorite Headed into Houston

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Toyota Center (Houston, Texas)

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Total: 222.5

Trends Against The Spread

ThunderatRockets
20-21 (48%)All18-19 (48%)
8-10 (44%) on the roadLocation6-8 (42%) on the road
20-21 (48%) as favoriteStatus2-0 (100%) as underdog
8-10 (44%) as home favoriteLocation Status0-0 (0%) as road underdog
0-1 (0%)Head To Head1-0 (0%)
  • Oklahoma City is 21-20 (51%) against the over on the season.
  • Houston is 19-18 (51%) against the over on the season.
  • The Thunder is 9-9 (50%) against the over on the road.
  • The Rockets are 7-7 (50%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
OKC121.3108.149.035.643.925.712.310.35.7W48-2
HOU117.9110.848.237.049.125.115.68.55.5W16-4

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Luguentz Dort (left foot soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Isaiah Hartenstein (strained left soleus) is OUT.
  • Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
  • Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.

Rockets

  • Isaiah Crawford (G League — two-way) is OUT.
  • Tari Eason (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle injury management) is OUT.
  • Tristen Newton (G League — two-way) is OUT.
  • Fred VanVleet (right knee ACL repair) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)

When these two teams met in the NBA’s season opener, the result was a 1-point Thunder win in double overtime. A couple of months and a lot of basketball played later, OKC and Houston aren’t really that close in the standings, but they probably will be on the court tonight. The Rockets have lost just twice at home—tied with OKC for the fewest home losses in the league—but they’ve had a heavy road schedule so far. While I expect it to be a good game, I don’t think Houston covers the spread unless they outright win, which is why I’m taking the Thunder to win by something around 6-8 points.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (222.5)

Two top-10 offenses playing against two top-5 defenses can be difficult to predict. Both teams have weapons on offense, and both teams play good team defense. The Thunder has the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Rockets have former MVP Kevin Durant. The Thunder has a young star in Jalen Williams, and the Rockets have a young star in Amen Thompson. The Thunder has a talented young center in Chet Holmgren, and the Rockets do as well in Alperen Sengun. Still, with the way OKC has played lately, and with how close Houston has played opponents at home, I’m expecting a defensive slugfest, so I’m taking the under on this point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt34-721-2018-23
Zack34-722-1920-21
Craig34-715-25-114-27

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