Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Kasey Center (Miami, Florida)
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
Total: 233.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Heat |
| 21-21 (50%) | All | 22-17-2 (56%) |
| 9-10 (47%) on the road | Location | 12-9 (57%) on the road |
| 21-21 (50%) as favorite | Status | 12-8-2 (60%) as underdog |
| 9-10 (47%) as home favorite | Location Status | 4-2 (66%) as road underdog |
| 0-1 (0%) | Head To Head | 1-0 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 21-21 (50%) against the over on the season.
- Miami is 20-21 (48%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 9-10 (47%) against the over on the road.
- The Heat are 10-11 (47%) against the over at home.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 121.1 | 107.7 | 48.9 | 35.6 | 43.9 | 25.7 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 5.9 | W5 | 8-2 |
| MIA | 119.4 | 117.8 | 47.0 | 36.8 | 45.3 | 28.5 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | L1 | 5-5 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Isaiah Hartenstein (strained left soleus) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
Heat
- Myron Gardner (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Vladislav Goldin (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Tyler Herro (right big toe/rib contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Jaime Jacquez Jr. (sprained left knee) is OUT.
- Nikola Jovic (right knee soreness) is AVAILABLE.
- Pelle Larsson (left 3rd mallet finger) is AVAILABLE.
- Davion Mitchell (left shoulder contusion) is OUT.
- Jahmir Young (G League — two-way) is OUT.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)
OKC is back to dominating opponents, and that’s probably due in some part to the short injury report. Isaiah Hartenstein remains out, but everyone else is healthy, while Miami is missing at least a few key pieces in this one. I like the Thunder to continue their solid play by picking up another double-digit win on this road trip.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (233.5)
The Thunder and the Heat are two of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA, but OKC’s defense is miles ahead of Miami’s. The Thunder has held opponents to below 100 points in back-to-back games, and even though I expect OKC to cover the double-digit spread, I’m still taking the under on this point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 35-7 | 21-21 | 19-23 |
| Zack | 35-7 | 23-19 | 21-21 |
| Craig | 35-7 | 16-25-1 | 14-28 |
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