Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored Over Washington In Largest Spread of the Season

Tip-Off: 4 PM CT

Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)

Spread: Thunder (-21.5)

Total: 231.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Wizards
33-37 (47%)	All	29-40 (42%)
17-17 (50%) on the road	Location	17-19 (47%) at home
30-36 (45%) as favorite	Status	23-37 (42%) as underdog
15-16 (48%) as road favorite	Location Status	15-16 (48%) as home underdog
1-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-1 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 36-34 (51%) against the over on the season.
• Washington is 38-31 (55%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 19-15 (55%) against the over at home.
• The Wizards are 20-16 (55%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	118.5	107.5	48.1	36.0	43.9	25.4	12.6	9.8	5.5	W10	10-0
WAS	112.5	123.7	46.0	35.7	42.6	25.0	15.8	7.7	5.9	L14	0-10

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (strained lower back) is OUT.
• Payton Sandfort (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Wizards

• Leaky Black (sprained left ankle) is OUT.
• Anthony Davis (sprained left finger) is OUT.
• Kyshawn George (sprained left elbow) is OUT.
• Tre Johnson (right foot soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Will Riley (right adductor soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• D’Angelo Russell (not with team) is OUT.
• Cam Whitmore (right shoulder deep vein thrombosis) is OUT.
• Trae Young (lower back pain; right quad contusion) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-21.5)

OKC has been favored in every game that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played (and then some), but none by this many points. The Wizards have one of the deepest injury reports in the league, and they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. OKC is so close to full health, and I think this game is going to be similar to the result in Brooklyn on Wednesday, so I’m taking the Thunder to win big.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (231.5)

I’m assuming the point total is so high because oddsmakers expect OKC to score a ton early on the way to a blowout, eventually leading to a higher point total, but I’m not seeing it. The Wizards have one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league, and they only have half their roster available anyway, so I think the Thunder keeps Washington from reaching double-digits. As for the other side, while I do think OKC blows this one out big time, I’m still taking the under on the point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	55-14	31-38	31-38
Zack	56-14	33-37	35-35
Craig	54-15	24-44-1	29-40