Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Takes on Suns in Phoenix for Game 3 as Near Double-Digit Favorite

Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix, Arizona)

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Total: 214.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Suns
40-44 (47%)	All	50-36 (58%)
20-20 (50%) on the road	Location	25-18 (58%) at home
37-42 (46%) as favorite	Status	25-20 (55%) as underdog
18-18- (50%) as road favorite	Location Status	12-6 (66%) as home underdog
3-4 (42%)	Head To Head	4-3 (57%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 46-38 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Phoenix is 37-49 (43%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 23-17 (53%) against the over on the road.
• The Suns are 16-27 (37%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	119.5	95.5	46.2	32.6	47.0	26.0	9.0	13.5	6.5	W2	2-0
PHX	95.5	119.5	40.5	34.3	44.5	19.5	20.5	5.0	1.5	L2	0-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• Isaiah Joe (personal reasons) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained left hamstring) is OUT.

Suns

• Grayson Allen (strained left hamstring) is AVAILABLE.
• Jordan Goodwin (left calf soreness) is OUT.
• Mark Williams (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9.5)

This line feels almost perfect for this game. OKC is without Jalen Williams, and Phoenix gets the home crowd, but the Thunder is still the better team in this match-up, and it isn’t even close. I could see this being a double-digit win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns covered late. Either way, I don’t see OKC losing. I do expect a chippy game, and I’m sure Phoenix will try to push the limit on the level of physicality, but a better shooting night from the Thunder than in Games 1 and 2 should do the trick, so I’m taking OKC to cover.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (214.5)

Even though a fourth-quarter scoring barrage by the Suns pushed the point total over in Game 2, I still like Game 3 to hit the under. This series has been fueled by defense so far, and unless Phoenix can magically figure out how to handle the relentless pressure from OKC, then this game should look similar to the first two in terms of difficulty to put points on the board.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	66-17	36-47	34-49
Zack	68-16	43-41	41-43
Craig	66-17	30-52-1	32-51