Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Enters Game 1 As Huge Favorite Over Lakers

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Total: 213.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Suns
41-45 (47%)	All	50-38 (56%)
20-24 (45%) at home	Location	23-21 (52%) on the road
38-43 (46%) as favorite	Status	20-19 (51%) as underdog
19-24 (44%) as home favorite	Location Status	11-11 (50%) as road underdog
4-0 (100%)	Head To Head	0-4 (100%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 48-38 (55%) against the over on the season.
• Los Angeles is 44-44 (50%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 23-21 (52%) against the over at home.
• The Lakers are 22-22 (50%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
LAL	101.2	98.7	47.4	38.6	41.5	23.2	17.7	7.5	6.7	W1	4-2
OKC	122.8	105.5	48.7	36.3	44.0	25.8	10.8	9.5	5.8	W4	4-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (strained left hamstring) is OUT.

Lakers

• Luka Doncic (strained left hamstring) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-15.5)

This is a giant spread, perhaps surprisingly so. Even without Luka Doncic, the Lakers—specifically LeBron James—being this big of an underdog is unprecedented. According to ESPN’s David Purdum, James has never been this big of an underdog in his entire career in the playoffs or regular season. Even still, I like the Thunder to cover.

The Lakers are extremely turnover-prone, an area where OKC feasts, and while LA’s defense looked solid against the Rockets in the first round, that was more of an indictment on Houston’s lack of offense. The Thunder enters this game well-rested, and the Paycom Center will be foaming at the mouth before the game even tips off. Give me OKC in a Game 1 blowout.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (213.5)

While I do expect a blowout, I do not expect it to be a shootout. The Lakers struggled to take care of the ball against the Rockets in the first round of the Playoffs, which drastically affected their ability to score, and I expect more of that against OKC, who loves forcing turnovers and scoring off them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should lead the way as OKC’s offense scores plenty of points, but I think the Thunder defense holds Los Angeles to perhaps a shockingly low number.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	68-17	36-49	34-51
Zack	70-16	44-42	42-44
Craig	68-17	31-53-1	33-52