Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Enters Game 3 of WCF Against Spurs as Rare Underdog

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio, Texas)

Spread: Thunder (+1.5)

Total: 217.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thundervs.Spurs
45-47 (48%)All55-40-1 (57%)
22-22 (50%) on the roadLocation29-19-1 (57%) at home
3-2 (60%) as underdogStatus40-33-1 (44%) as favorite
2-2 (50%) as road underdogLocation Status23-19-1 (54%) as home favorite
2-5 (28%)Head To Head5-2 (71%)
  • Oklahoma City is 53-39 (57%) against the over on the season.
  • San Antonio is 44-51-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
  • The Thunder is 27-17 (61%) against the over on the road.
  • The Spurs are 20-26 (43%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
OKC120.7107.249.538.141.026.612.011.04.9W19-1
SAS117.0104.948.537.748.425.015.88.37.9L17-3

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
  • Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is OUT.

Spurs

  • De’Aaron Fox (sprained right ankle) is AVAILABLE.
  • Dylan Harper (right adductor soreness) is AVAILABLE.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+1.5)

OKC is 2-1 in clutch games out of 10 playoff games played so far. San Antonio is 2-4 in clutch games out of 13 playoff games played so far. Both Games 1 and 2 were close ones, with each team taking a win apiece, and Game 3 should be another game decided in the clutch. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning clutch player of the year, and though he’s not been nearly as hot late in games in the playoffs, I trust him over Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, or anybody else San Antonio has. I think OKC pulls this one out to take a 2-1 series lead.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (217.5)

San Antonio won Game 1 by limiting OKC’s offense, specifically Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder won Game 2 by limiting what Victor Wembanyama was able to do defensively, specifically via Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s much more efficient scoring night. This game will be full of defense—on par with expectations for the series as a whole—but the result will be decided by way of shot-making. I think both teams will continue to figure out ways to score, ultimately pushing the point total over the line.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt73-1840-5136-55
Zack75-1748-4445-47
Craig73-1834-56-136-55

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