The Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs have been at each other’s throats for a couple of weeks now, and now the moment that every sports fan loves has finally arrived: Game 7.
After the Spurs stole Game 1 in Oklahoma City, the Thunder answered with back-to-back wins to take a 2-1 series lead. The Spurs answered in Game 4 to tie the series before each team won a game at home, tying the series back up at 3-3. No game has been particularly close since the double-overtime matchup in Game 1, but fans shouldn’t expect a blowout to wrap up this series.
Victor Wembanyama has had a great series for the Spurs, averaging 28.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game. He has been a bit inconsistent, though, averaging 34.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in the 3 wins, but only 22.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in the 3 losses. Containing him will obviously be important for the Thunder, but OKC cannot allow Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper to run wild in the paint while Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, and Keldon Johnson hit wide-open threes.
The Thunder’s defense has been stout for pretty much the entire series—even in losses—but the offense has been very up-and-down. In the 3 wins, OKC has averaged 124.0 points, shooting 48.1% from the field and 41.5% from three with just 12.7 turnovers per game. In the 3 losses, though, those numbers drop to 96.0 points on 37.1% from the field and 28.0% from three, all while turning the ball over 16.0 times per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a subpar series compared to his typical output, particularly in the 3 losses. Averaging just 19.3 points on 33.9% from the floor—including 15.4% from three—isn’t going to get it done. In the 3 wins, though, those numbers jump to 29.3 points per game on 41.7% from the floor and 40.0% from three. The Thunder doesn’t need him to be out-of-this-world great tonight to win, but OKC does need him to bring the level of consistency that he has built a reputation on.
Don’t be surprised if SGA and Wemby both have stellar games. Tonight’s game will likely be decided by whoever has the best “other guys.” That’s where OKC has the advantage in a Game 7 like this. Led by Alex Caruso, OKC’s bench unit has shot the ball leaps and bounds better at home, averaging 49.0 points on 47.1% shooting from the field and 44.3% from three, compared to 49.3 points on 39.2% from the field and 33.3% from three. Likewise, San Antonio’s bench hasn’t had nearly as big an impact on the series, specifically on the road in OKC, where the Spurs’ back-ups have averaged just 24.7 points, compared to 33.0 points at home.
When it all comes down to it, though, a Game 7 cannot be put into a box. Trending stats might matter to an extent, but outliers are bound to happen, and whoever rises to the occasion—or falters under the bright lights—will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game. One thing is for sure, though: Loud City is going to be Loud City, through and through.
Game Details
Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Television: NBA on NBC and Peacock
Radio: WWLS 98.1FM OKC The Sports Animal
Twitter: Follow @ZacharyLowNBA for live tweets and discussion during the game
Game Notes: Oklahoma City Thunder Official Game Notes, San Antonio Spurs Official Game Notes
Projected Starters
Thunder
- PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- SG: Jared McCain
- SF: Luguentz Dort
- PF: Chet Holmgren
- C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Spurs
- PG: De’Aaron Fox
- SG: Stephon Castle
- SF: Devin Vassell
- PF: Justin Champagnie
- C: Victor Wembanyama
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is OUT.
Spurs
- NONE
Head-to-Head
- Since arriving in Oklahoma City in 2008, the Thunder is 32-34 against the Spurs in the regular season (22-11 at home, 10-22 away, 0-1 at neutral location) and 13-11 against them in the playoffs (9-3 at home, 4-8 away).
- Since arriving in Oklahoma City, the Thunder has won the season series with the Spurs 5 times, lost 8 times, and tied 5 times.
- The Thunder went 1-4 against the Spurs in the regular season (1-1 at home, 0-2 on the road, and 0-1 at a neutral location).
- OKC is tied with San Antonio 3-3 in the Western Conference Finals (2-1 at home, 1-2 on the road).